SHANGHAI, Aug 11 (SMM) –
Overnight, the most-traded SHFE 2309 aluminium contract opened at 18,540 yuan/mt, with the lowest and highest prices at 18,480 yuan/mt and 18,560 yuan/mt before closing at 18,515 yuan/mt, up 20 yuan/mt or 0.11% from the previous trading day. LME aluminium opened at $2,197/mt on Thursday with its high and low at $2,220.5/mt and $2,195.5/mt respectively before closing at $2,203.5/mt, an increase of $6.5/mt or 0.3% from the previous trading day.
On the macro front, the Fed is expected to raise interest rates again. The US dollar index rebounded, making the overall performance of non-ferrous metals under pressure. China is focusing on expanding the domestic demand and economic stimulus policies continue to be implemented. In terms of fundamentals, aluminum production in Yunnan is speeding up, and pressure on the supply side gradually emerges. Due to floods and other factors in the north during the week, fewer aluminum ingots arrived. The social inventory of aluminum ingots is in a state of destocking, and orders in some downstream sectors increased, but consumption in mainstream markets is still relatively weak. In the short term, the accumulation of aluminum social inventory may lower than expected, and the low-inventory status is difficult to change in the short term, giving support to aluminum prices. With the release of positive sentiment at the macro level plus the current increase in supply and the poor fundamentals of downstream consumption, SMM predicted that the short-term aluminum prices will remain volatile, and follow-up attention should be paid to consumption and inventory.
