CITIC Securities: The US economy faces greater headwinds in the 2023 fourth quarter and thereafter

SHANGHAI, August 2 (SMM) –

CITIC Securities Research Report pointed out that the short-term labor market growth may remain the US economy resilient, but there is high certainty in the mid-to-long-term market weakening trend. Due to the support of the excess savings of middle and high-income groups in the short term and the rebound in real wage growth, it is expected that US consumption may continue to maintain stability. In terms of business investment, although the Biden administration’s various bills have promoted investment, it is expected that falling profits and debt maturity will still lead to increased pressure on business operations in the fourth quarter of this year or next year. The recovery of the US real estate market will continue in the short period, but the deterioration of the labor market in the future may drive the real estate market to turn cold. The overall state of the U.S. economy may face greater downside risks in the fourth quarter of this year and thereafter.