Spot premiums in Shanghai fell before rallying last week. SMM reported that #1 copper cathode traded with premiums of 10-50 yuan/mt against SHFE 2304 copper contract two Fridays ago, and with premiums of 30-60 yuan/mt over the same contract last Friday April 14. Spot premiums will fluctuate with the price spread between the SHFE front-month and next-month copper contracts this week as the SHFE 2304 copper contract is due for delivery on Monday April 17.
At the beginning of last week, the backwardation exceeded 100 yuan/mt, and the spot premiums were suppressed. At the end of the week, downstream buying interest remained weak as copper returned to above 70,000 yuan/mt. Spot copper traded with small premiums. According to SMM statistics, the inventory in Shanghai increased slightly last Friday. This verified that the downstream delivery taking from spot traders was sluggish and that a larger volume of domestic cargoes were delivered to warehouses amid decreasing inflows of imported copper. This week, spot traders will start quoting against the SHFE 2305 copper contract. If copper prices are high, there will be little room for spot premiums to rise. But if the expansion of import losses triggers smelters’ export enthusiasm, spot premiums will improve.
Shandong: Spot discounts remained at around 100 yuan/mt. Spot quotes in Shandong followed the change in Shanghai prices last week. According to some large-scale smelters, the downstream consumption was still poor, and some smelters in north China selling at low prices prevented spot quotes in Shandong from rising. Some local smelters shipped their inventories to Henan, Tianjin and other places. Due to the anemic demand, downstream processing enterprises were only maintained on-demand purchases. It is expected that demand will hardly change significantly in the short term. This, combined with the impact from low prices offered by smelters in north China, will keep spot quotes in Shandong at low levels this week.
Spot quotes in north China inched lower last week. Spot copper was quoted with discounts of 310-50 yuan/mt, or an average discount of 180 yuan/mt, two Fridays ago, and was quoted with discounts of 300-80 yuan/mt, or an average discount of 190 yuan/mt last Friday, down 10 yuan/mt. Copper prices continued to rise, which significantly suppressed the downstream purchasing sentiment. The overall spot trading in north China was subdued. SMM understood that some cargoes in north China were shipped to east China, alleviating inventory pressure at sellers and limiting declines in spot quotes in north China.
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