October Copper Semis Imports and Exports both Weak, and Imports are Likely to Recover Slightly in November

SHANGHAI, Nov 15 (SMM) - China copper semis import volume is estimated to stand at 27,600 mt in October, down 17% MoM, according to SMM. The imports will then come in at 370,200 mt in January-October, down 21.5% YoY. Copper semis exports are estimated at 50,800 mt in October, down 4.4% MoM. The exports will be 583,100 mt in January-October, up 7.97% YoY.

SMM expects the October copper semis import volume to show a significant MoM decline mainly due to the National Day holiday in addition to poor domestic demand. The imports of copper rod and wire totalled 11,900 mt in September, up 13.5% MoM and down 26.7% YoY; copper plate/sheet and strip 7,300 mt, down 5.1% MoM and 26.6% YoY; copper foil 12,700 mt, up 6.6% MoM and down 31.4% YoY; and copper tube 1,100 mt, down 32.9% MoM and 41.4% YoY, according to the General Administration of Customs. Nevertheless, the import volume is likely to fall MoM in October as the customs office was closed during the National Day holiday. In terms of exports, the PMI readings of European countries and the US have all declined in the fourth quarter, and foreign companies' demand for Chinese copper semis will contract. The exports of copper rod and wire totalled 7,600 mt in September, down 3.3% MoM and up 1% YoY; copper plate/sheet and strip 7,800 mt, down 7.6% MoM and 4% YoY; copper tube 26,200 mt, down 4.1% MoM and 15% YoY; and copper foil 10,900 mt, up 8.3% MoM and down 4% YoY, according to the General Administration of Customs. In September, only copper foil exports showed positive growth, and fell across other sub-sectors; and it is expected this situation to extend into November. In addition, the ocean freight continued to decline in October, which also evidenced the current weak overseas demand. The Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) stood at 1,579.21 as of November 4, a drop of 343.74 points or 17.88% from 1,922.95 at the end of September.

Looking ahead to November, the copper semis import volume is likely to rise with the recovering demand in China as well as the absence of long holidays in the month. The export volume, however, is still difficult to improve after the tide of Christmas orders and as there has been no significant increase in new orders.