Bearish Iron Ore Fundamentals Overshadow Bullish Macro Factors

SHANGHAI, June 29 (SMM) - Boosted by the positive macro news, ferrous metals closed with gains across the board yesterday. Iron ore futures moved all the way up yesterday afternoon, closing up 6.31% at 809 yuan/mt. Rebar and hot-rolled coil (HRC) futures both rose by more than 2% to 4,349 yuan/mt and 4,399 yuan/mt respectively.
Macro front: On June 27, the People’s Bank of China emphasized that monetary policy will be strengthened so as to increase support for promoting economic recovery. On the same day, the Ministry of Transport held a press conference, saying that a number of highway projects will be launched in the second half of the year, and the policy of stabilizing growth will continue to be promoted. 
At the press conference held by the National Development and Reform Commission on the morning of June 28, Deputy Secretary-General Yang Yinkai pointed out that consumer prices in China have continued to operate within a reasonable range since the beginning of this year, which fully demonstrates the resilience of Chinese economy and the effectiveness of macro regulation. In the future, the NDRC will make every effort to ensure the stable supply and price of commodities, and continue to strengthen market supervision. 
However, the spot iron ore market was quiet as steel mills mainly stood on the sidelines. SMM data showed that the spot prices of PB fines at ports in Shandong rose 5-45 yuan/mt from a day earlier to 835-875 yuan/mt. The transaction prices of PB fines at ports in Tangshan were 870 yuan/mt, which was 35 yuan/mt higher than in the previous day. 
The fundamentals of iron ore market are not optimistic.  SMM data showed that a total of 71 ships arrived at major ports in China from June 20 to June 26, carrying 10.77 million mt of iron ore, down 680,000 mt on a weekly basis and 1.09 million mt from a year ago. Shipments from Australia continued to increase, and shipments from Brazil have also begun to increase. It is expected that the port arrivals will increase next week. Given the weak domestic demand, port inventories may begin to grow. 
Steel prices rose slightly amid blast furnace maintenance, which improved the profit margins of steel mills and eased market pessimism. 
Despite positive macro front, iron ore prices will remain pressured as steel mill output cuts have dampened the demand outlook.