The trend of valuation and repair of lithium, cobalt and nickel prices is clear [institutional review]

Core point of view

Macro: the outbreak of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine may aggravate the inflationary pressure in Europe and the United States. Abroad: Russia's military action against Ukraine on February 24 may lead to a rise in international energy and food prices, which will further aggravate inflationary pressures in the United States and Europe. Domestic: the Ministry of Housing and Construction said that it will maintain the continuity and stability of the regulation and control policies of the real estate market, promote the virtuous circle and healthy development of the real estate industry, and strive to stabilize land prices, housing prices and expectations.

Iron and steel: the NDRC adjusts the prices of iron ore and coal, and steel companies may benefit from the cost side. This week, rebar production increased significantly by 6.86% month-on-month, and consumption increased by 46.78% month-on-month. Steel companies continued to resume production this week, according to Mysteel data, this week long process rebar capacity utilization of 68.6%, month-on-month slightly lower 0.28PCT. The National Development and Reform Commission maintains the normal order of the market and ensures the smooth operation of iron ore and coal prices.

New energy metals: the demand for new energy vehicles is high, and the prices of lithium, cobalt and nickel are rising. In terms of lithium, the price of domestic lithium hydroxide was 415500 yuan / ton this week, up 11.54% from the previous month; the price of domestic 99.5% battery-grade lithium carbonate was 464000 yuan / ton, up 5.94% from the previous month. This week, MB standard cobalt ring ratio increased slightly, cobalt tetroxide ring ratio increased slightly. On the nickel side, the spot settlement price of LME nickel this week was $26105 a tonne, up 6.55 per cent from the previous month.

Industrial metals: after the Winter Olympic Games, aluminum processing enterprises in North China have resumed production one after another. Copper smelter TC/RC increased significantly this week, global refined copper production and primary refined copper production decreased slightly in November, electrolytic aluminum operating rate remained high at 89% in December, slightly increased by 0.93 PCT compared with the previous month; inventory, LME copper inventory increased slightly compared with the previous month, LME aluminum inventory decreased significantly; in terms of price, the current price of LME copper decreased slightly by 0.32% compared with the previous month, and the current aluminum price rose slightly by 0.99% compared with the previous month. In terms of profit, the profit of electrolytic aluminum in Xinjiang, Shandong and Inner Mongolia dropped month-on-month this week.

King: the situation in Ukraine has deteriorated, and risk aversion has pushed up the price of gold. This week, the price of COMEX gold fell slightly by 0.56% from the previous month, the number of non-commercial net long positions in gold rose 13.83% from the previous month, and the yield on the 10-year US Treasury note this week was 1.97%, slightly higher than the previous month-on-month 0.05PCT.

Investment suggestion and investment target

Steel: in terms of Pu Steel, on the one hand, it is recommended to pay attention to listed companies with low carbon emission intensity per ton of steel and low energy consumption per ton, and to pay attention to CITIC Special Steel (000708, bought), Fangda Special Steel (600507, unrated), Valin Steel (000932, bought), and on the other hand, listed companies with lower PB, such as Maanshan Iron and Steel (600808, unrated), New Steel (600782, unrated), Angang (000898, unrated), TISCO stainless (000825, unrated). Unrated); Special steel, it is recommended to pay attention to new energy nuclear power, wind power supply enterprises, such as Citic Special Steel (000708, buy).

New energy metals: it is recommended to pay attention to enterprises rich in lithium resources, such as Ganfeng Lithium Industry (002460, unrated), Yongxing Materials (002756, bought), Salt Lake shares (000792, unrated), etc.

Copper: Zijin Mining (601899, buy), which is recommended to focus on mine expansion; and lithium copper foil manufacturers: Jiayuan Technology (688388, unrated), Nord shares (600110, unrated), etc.

Aluminum: it is recommended to pay attention to Yunnan Aluminum Co., Ltd. (000807, unrated), Mingtai Aluminum (601677, buy), and high-end aluminum company Nanshan Aluminum (600219, unrated).

Jin: it is recommended to pay attention to the industry leader Zijin Mining (601899, buy), Shandong Gold (600547, unrated), Shengda Resources (000603, unrated), etc.

Risk hint

A slowdown in macroeconomic growth; fluctuations in raw material prices