On the evening of February 15, a news fermented that the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau scientific research team of the Institute of Geology and Geophysics of the Chinese Academy of Sciences discovered super-large lithium deposits in the Qiongjiagang area of the Himalayas in the summer of 2021. The lithium deposit is considered to be "expected to become the third largest lithium deposit in China after Bailongshan in southern Xinjiang and methyl card in western Sichuan", and is "the first pegmatite lithium deposit with industrial value in the Himalayas".
The relevant results have been published in the Journal of Rock. Qin Kezhang, head of the scientific research team, said that the lithium oxide resources in the orebody can reach 1.0125 million tons, "this value is based on the conservatively estimated orebody volume and lithium oxide resource content." Qiongjiagang Lithium Mine has good mining conditions. "
How does the million-ton lithium vein affect the market pattern?
Generally speaking, lithium oxide resources are called "large" lithium ore when the lithium oxide resources are more than 100000 tons. Qiongjiagang lithium ore with ten times this scale is "super large". At the same time, it is accompanied by beryllium, tantalum, niobium and other non-ferrous metal resources as well as quartz and mica, once it is put into production, the corresponding economic benefits will be greatly increased.
According to an interview with Qin Kezhang in the China Science Daily, "the surface outcrop of the Qiongjiagang lithium mine is very good, so we can clearly see the length, width and surface outcrop drop." The length of the four ore belts is more than 1000 meters, and the width of two ore belts is about 100m, which is concentrated in the high altitude area of 5390 m to 5581 m. "
After the news fermented, several institutions mentioned the exploration results of the lithium mine in the investment event of the day. The market pays close attention to this, the main reason is: lithium mine is the "sticking neck" link in the upper reaches of the trillion new energy vehicle industry chain, supply and demand continues to be tight.
So what is the impact of this super-large lithium mine on the supply chain structure of lithium mine?
According to the summary of SMM, data of listed companies and Huaxin Securities, in 2022, the increment of domestic lithium mine supply is about 108900 tons, and that of salt lake lithium extraction is 8.1 tons, which is still not small compared with the overseas supply increment. At the same time, due to the continuous promotion of global low-carbon emission reduction, the demand for new energy construction makes the demand for lithium resources high.
In terms of magnitude, the estimated reserves of this super-large lithium deposit are about 10 times the increment of domestic lithium mining in 2022, but it should be noted that according to Qin Kezhang, the lithium deposit is still in the primary "pre-survey" stage. Only basically determine the distribution range of orebodies and the category and content of useful elements. From discovery to mining, a certain mine generally goes through four stages: pre-survey, general survey, detailed survey and exploration. In other words, the lithium ore resource will not be able to enter the production link in the short term.
Technically, the surface outcrop of the lithium mine is good, and similar veins often use open-pit mining, the cost is relatively low, in addition to the previous investment in large machinery and equipment, and the labor productivity is mainly affected by the regional climate and the convenience of transportation. the lithium mine is located on the border between China and Nepal, 470 kilometers away from Lhasa, and located in a high altitude area. If the exploration ends and enters the mining period, the transportation problem remains to be solved.
What kind of signal does the dispute over the supply of lithium ore bring to the market?
In 2021, the strongest new energy main line of A-share this year began with the tight supply and demand of lithium resources, from the take-off of Xinneng car market to the ebb tide, the prices of lithium mines and derivatives have been rising, and lithium resources have become a battleground for enterprises downstream of the new energy vehicle industry chain. Ningde era, Zijin Mining spent a lot of money bidding for Canadian lithium salt merchants; Tesla signed a new lithium ore purchase order with Australian lithium miners on Wednesday and will gradually purchase 100,000 metric tons of (DMT) lithium concentrate from Liontown Resources from 2024.
This week, lithium mining companies in Australia, a major lithium exporter, released their results in the fourth quarter of last year. Looking at two mines that sell lithium concentrates, sales in the fourth quarter were 116800 tons, down 35.56% from a month earlier. Both companies said that the epidemic had led to delays in delivery, which is bound to affect their Chinese underwriting customers' access to raw materials and production operations in the fourth quarter. Taking into account the epidemic and labor shortages affecting concentrate supply, Citic Securities expects lithium prices to exceed $3000 a tonne in the first half of 2022.
Huaxi Securities notes that more than 80% of Australia's lithium concentrate increment in 2022 will come from mines that supply only its own shareholders; in addition, Australian companies covet mid-stream lithium profits to accelerate the extension of the industrial chain downstream. This quarter is a typical example of MRL withdrawing the underwriting rights for Mt Marion concentrate to be sold by joint venture partners to produce lithium hydroxide.
As the upstream raw materials necessary for the vigorous development of electric vehicles for a long time in the future, countries have transferred lithium resources to national strategic resources, which means that overseas acquisitions will not only be influenced by previous geopolitics, but will also be affected by concerns about the future industrial development of various countries. Overseas lithium resources acquisition will become more difficult than before, and at the same time, it will also affect the global production and release rate of short-and medium-term lithium resources, and lithium prices may remain high for at least two years. In order to stimulate and accelerate the process of global resource development.
As a result, the current domestic lithium mine supply "de-Australianization" has become a market focus. Citic Securities said that companies that take the lead in the distribution of lithium resources outside Australia and companies building lithium conversion capacity in Australia are expected to benefit. Recommend Ganfeng Lithium Industry, Salt Lake shares and Shengxin Lithium Energy.
Will the Romance of Lithium Resources affect "Ning Wang"? Zeng Yuqun gave "reassurance"
The recent ups and downs of stock prices in the Ningde era have affected the market. For "Ning Wang", lithium resources are also an important part of its main business.
During the period of shorting and supporting various securities firms, on the morning of February 14, news came from the official account of Wechat of Ningde Times. Sichuan Times New Energy Resources Co., Ltd. recently signed a joint venture agreement with Ganzi Prefecture Investment Group, Yibin Sanjiang Huida Company, and Sichuan Tianfu Mining Company. According to the agreement, all parties will carry out all-round cooperation in line with the national strategic mineral security guarantee, speed up the exploration and development of lithium mineral resources in the province, increase the supply of lithium resources, promote comprehensive utilization in a scientific and orderly manner, and promote the coordinated development of the whole industry chain of new energy.
The agency evaluation said that the signing of the quadripartite agreement in the Ningde era to cooperate to speed up the exploration and development of lithium resources will further strengthen the integration capability of the industrial chain in the Ningde era, and highlight the importance of lithium resources to the lithium battery industry chain.
When Zeng Yuqun, the "leader" of Ningde era, personally responded to the focus of market attention on the recent research activities, he also gave "reassurance" to the rising price of lithium resources: "Ningde has adequate supply security, but there is no way to increase the price of raw materials in the short term. In the long run, the new production capacity will be released in one and a half years. In addition to locking in upstream resources, Ningde has also laid out mining (as a strategic reserve) in Sichuan, and the proportion of lithium metal recycling has also increased significantly. Ningde not only recycles nickel, cobalt and lithium, but also plans to recover LFP, negative graphite, lithium in 6F and so on. "
