The photovoltaic inflection point has reached the door of lithium battery [agency review]

The overall photovoltaic index rose 7.68% this week, showing positive signals for the first time after a long consolidation. The price of silicon fell for four consecutive weeks, approaching the critical value of 230000 yuan / ton. corresponding to 1.8yuan / W components, the relationship between supply and demand has been greatly improved. the market expects that the missing demand in the fourth quarter will be released sharply in the first quarter, resulting in a prosperous situation in the off-season. At the same time, the photovoltaic plate leader corresponds to a 22-year valuation of only 30 times, whether from the point of view of supply and demand or valuation, after half a year of concussion is now in a reasonable range, the logical inflection point has appeared.

The main contradiction of photovoltaic in the second half of 2021 is the demand, while the 22-year strong demand for lithium batteries and the growth rate of 50%, the main contradiction is the leading valuation. However, after several months of consolidation, the valuation of the new energy vehicle leader is generally 40-50 times in 22 years, and 30 times in 23 years, which is lower than the adjustment at the beginning of 21 years and basically falls into a reasonable range, and what the market needs is the continuous verification of downstream performance growth. therefore, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in December and the follow-up annual report forecast may become the key for the new energy sector to get rid of the quagmire. At present, the overall plate has been in a more reasonable range, only short of the door.

Market performance

This week, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.60% to close at 3639.78 points; the CSI 300 rose 0.39% to close at 4940.37 points; and the CITIC Electric Power New Energy Industry Index rose 2.95%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 2.56%. For the fine molecular industry, the new energy vehicle index rose 1.25%, the photovoltaic index rose 7.68%, and the wind power index rose 0.73%.

Trends of some companies

Longji shares announced on the evening of December 30 that the public issuance of convertible corporate bonds by Longji shares has been approved by the China Securities Regulatory Commission. The convertible bonds issued this time are referred to as "long 22 convertible bonds" and the bond code is "113053". The initial conversion price of the convertible bonds is 82.65 yuan per share. The priority placing date for the original shareholders of this convertible bond issue is the same as the online purchase date on January 5, 2022 (T day), the placing code is "764012", the placing is referred to as "Longji allotment debt", and the online application time is T day 9, 9, 30, 11, 11, 30, 13, 00, 15, 15, and 00. (company announcement)

Tianci announced on the evening of December 28th that the company intends to set up a wholly-owned subsidiary to invest in the construction of an annual lithium battery electrolyte project with an annual capacity of 200000 tons in Sihui City, Zhaoqing, Guangdong Province. According to the plan, the total investment of the project is about 820 million yuan, and the construction period is 12 months. after reaching production, it is expected to achieve an average annual operating income of 550 million yuan and an average annual net profit of about 300 million yuan. After the completion of the project, it will meet the needs of the company's future business development and market expansion in South China, help to continuously strengthen the company's advantages in raw material transportation cost, supply cycle and quality assurance, and constantly improve its market competitiveness. (company announcement)

Risk hint

The risk of intensified market competition, the risk of recurrent epidemic situation, and the risk of subsidy policy.