Ternary materials lead the rise of lithium plate the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has made further requirements for energy density and the time has come to counterattack lithium iron phosphate?

Today, a number of stocks of ternary lithium batteries strengthened. As of press time, Fangyuan shares and Zhongwei shares rose more than 10%, and Dangsheng Technology once rose nearly 10% in intraday trading. Among them, Fangyuan shares and Zhongwei shares, which are among the biggest gainers, are mainly engaged in ternary cathode material precursors.

On the news side, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology yesterday issued "Lithium-ion Battery Industry Standard conditions (2021)" and "Lithium-ion Battery Industry Standard Bulletin Management measures (2021)" (draft for soliciting opinions). The latest report of CITIC Securities pointed out that the document once again mentioned the energy density requirements of power batteries, indicating that ternary cathode materials are still the development direction encouraged by the policy, which is a great advantage.

Specifically, the draft for soliciting opinions puts forward quantitative indicators for the layout of the newly built lithium power industry and the establishment of projects. Among them, it has also made a specific threshold for the product performance of the newly built power battery project.

The picture is from "Lithium Ion Battery Industry specifications (2021)" (draft for soliciting opinions)

At present, the power battery route is mainly divided into lithium iron phosphate battery and ternary battery.

While the lithium iron phosphate battery quickly grabs the market with the advantage of price, the upper limit of its theoretical energy density is also a major restriction for its future promotion. Especially after this document increases the battery monomer energy density to 180Wh/kg, the prospect of monomer energy density still hovering in 160Wh/kg lithium iron phosphate is more complicated and confusing.

In contrast, the re-emphasis on the energy density of the battery further highlights the advantages of ternary batteries.

Different from lithium iron phosphate battery, ternary lithium battery is always famous for its high capacity and long life. At present, the energy density of domestic ternary battery has exceeded the document requirements.

The above report of CITIC Securities gives a view that the energy density index is mentioned in the consultation draft, indicating that the ternary cathode material with the advantage of energy density is still the development direction encouraged by the policy, and it is still the main choice of power battery for passenger cars.

Last month's power battery loading data also hints at the return trend of ternary batteries to some extent. Three-yuan loading increased by 13.5% month-on-month in October, achieving double-digit month-on-month growth for two consecutive months, while lithium iron phosphate still dominated loading, but it declined for the first time in six months.

In addition, domestic three-yuan manufacturers have also been frequently favored recently. Take Dangsheng science and technology as an example, the company yesterday disclosed 4.645 billion yuan to increase fund-raising results, including Huian Fund, Mining and Metallurgical Group, UBS AG and so on; announced on the 15th, strategic cooperation with South Korean giant SK to jointly develop cathode materials business; and early this month, it was announced that it would expand production in Europe through a joint venture with Finland Mining Group, and the total investment in the first phase would be as high as 3.9 billion yuan.

Previously, due to factors such as iron, lithium and other factors, the former frequently ushered in new players cross-border, old players to expand production, the expansion of the three-yuan industry is relatively restrained, next year's new production capacity is mainly from the industry manufacturers to expand production. According to the agency, it seems that the competition pattern of the industry is at a better level in the middle reaches of lithium power.

At the same time, the scale effect appears under the expansion of production and sales, and ternary materials are expected to maintain a simultaneous rise in volume and price next year; with the increase in the proportion of development and recovery of nickel and cobalt resources, the current cost problems restricting the development of ternary materials are expected to be solved; material modification, battery structure optimization, system protection and other strategies are expected to improve the safety deficiency of ternary batteries.

Under the influence of many factors, the agency believes that the situation in which the ternary material plate is suppressed in the early stage will be rectified.