Lock up the news that the price soared more than 6 times: when will the shortage of lithium hexafluorophosphate stop?

At the end of June this year, the quotation of lithium hexafluorophosphate was about 350000 yuan / ton. since the second half of the year, in a short period of more than two months, the quotation of lithium hexafluorophosphate has exceeded 450000 yuan / ton.

Prices skyrocketed by more than six times

Battery network consulting Zhangjiagang Guotai Huarong Chemical New Materials Co., Ltd. insiders learned that the current factory price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is more than 400,000 yuan / ton, and the price of some long-term orders is about 300000 yuan / ton.

"Lithium hexafluorophosphate is quoted at 500000 yuan / ton recently, and the transaction price is between 45 yuan and 500000 yuan / ton." Sun Xinhua, chief engineer / deputy general manager of Tianjin Jinniu Power material Co., Ltd., offered a higher price. "Battery factories generally do not approve of such a price," he said. " According to its disclosure, in the first half of this year, the locking price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is about 18-200000 yuan / ton. Since the second half of the year, the lock price has been on the high side.

"the current price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is as low as 450000 yuan / ton, and the order quotations of some small customers have exceeded 500000 yuan / ton." The relevant person in charge of Jiangsu Jiujiujiu Technology Co., Ltd. said to the battery network, "the company has not signed a price locking agreement." According to industry sources, the current price of lock-up orders is generally between 24 and 350000 yuan / ton. "

Battery network combing found that in the last round of lithium hexafluorophosphate price rise, its all-time high appeared in March 2016, the price is about 400000 yuan / ton. If calculated according to the quotation of about 70, 000 yuan / ton in the same period in 2020 and the current maximum of 500000 yuan / ton, lithium hexafluorophosphate has increased by more than 6 times in the past year. Even according to the price of 100000 yuan per ton at the beginning of this year, it has increased by about four times.

As for the reasons for the sharp rise in prices, the general view in the industry is that from around 2017 to the first half of 2020, the electrolyte industry chain has overcapacity and downward profits, and the enthusiasm of industrial chain enterprises to expand production is not high in the absence of clear customer binding. Since the second half of last year, downstream demand such as power batteries broke out more than expected, and the expansion rate of upstream raw materials such as lithium hexafluorophosphate and VC could not keep pace with the growth rate of demand, thus triggering a tide of shortage and price increases.

The message of locking order is spread frequently.

Under the tide of shortage and rising prices, the news of locking orders spread frequently. In addition to electrolyte manufacturers, battery companies also snapped up lithium hexafluorophosphate. According to Sun Xinhua, the current locking capacity of lithium hexafluorophosphate in large factories is about 75%, and that in medium-sized factories is about 50%. According to the person in charge of Jiujiu science and technology, about 20% of the existing domestic production capacity of lithium hexafluorophosphate is locked in the price, and about 50% of the locked quantity is not locked in

According to rough statistics of Battery Network, since the second half of this year, a number of listed companies, such as Yan'an Bikang, Yongtai Technology, Polyfluorodo, Skyline shares, and so on, have announced the signing of long-term orders:

In September, 99 Jiujiu Technology, a subsidiary of Yan'an Bikang Holdings, signed a long-term strategic cooperation agreement with Yienke Battery to supply no less than 16300 tons of lithium hexafluorophosphate products in the next four years. In August, the company signed a long-term strategic cooperation agreement with South Korea's Enchem to supply no less than 6432 tons of lithium hexafluorophosphate products from July this year to December 2025. In July, the company signed a long-term cooperation agreement with BYD's supply chain to supply no less than 7870 tons from July this year to 2023.

In August, Yongtai Technology signed a material procurement agreement with Ningde Times, which will purchase lithium hexafluorophosphate, lithium difluorosulfonimide and ethylene carbonate products from the company in the next five years, with a minimum purchase of 24150 tons of lithium hexafluorophosphate.

In July, DFD announced that it had signed three sales contracts with customers for lithium hexafluorophosphate products, and the delivery time was before December 2022. Among them, the total purchase quantity of BYD is not less than 6460 tons, that of Funeng Technology is not less than 1700 tons, and that of South Korea Enchem is 1800 tons.

In July, Skyline announced that BYD and Cathay Huarong had successively signed a long-term supply contract with their subsidiary Xintai Materials and lithium hexafluorophosphate products from July this year to June 2023. No less than 21500 tons of lithium hexafluorophosphate will be supplied to the two enterprises.

Investment to expand production and reheat

From the signing of long-term orders, the demand of lithium hexafluorophosphate market has greatly exceeded the existing capacity, triggering a new round of investment boom. Since the second half of this year alone, many companies have announced production expansion, such as Polyfluorodo, Tianshi Materials, Skyline, Yongtai Technology, and even new faces such as Lizhong Group, Chuan Heng shares, Sanmei shares, and so on.

According to the analysis of the person in charge of 99 Jiujiu science and technology, the lithium hexafluorophosphate process is risky, the control process management requirements are high, and the technical difficulty exceeds the general fine chemical production, and there is still a long way to go to cross the border into the enterprise. At the same time, the certification cycle of product formation and sales is long, which is also a difficult problem that cross-border enterprises will inevitably face.

Guotai Huarong insiders are also not optimistic about cross-border investment in lithium hexafluorophosphate, he explained that lithium hexafluorophosphate has certain technical barriers, long investment cycle and price downside risks. As the expansion cycle of new capacity is about one and a half to two years, it is expected that the tight supply of lithium hexafluorophosphate will last until the end of 2022, and there may be overcapacity after 2023.

"according to the production expansion plan announced by existing enterprises, the market price of lithium hexafluorophosphate may rise and fall greatly." Sun Xinhua also suggested that listed companies should be cautious in entering the field of lithium hexafluorophosphate across the border. "however, the examination and approval of lithium hexafluorophosphate is relatively strict, it is possible that many projects cannot be approved, and the market performance will be a little more stable than in the previous round."

For the concern about the overcapacity of lithium hexafluorophosphate, the person in charge of science and technology in 1999 is more optimistic: "relevant agencies predict that the demand for lithium salt will reach 300000 tons / year in 2025." Lithium hexafluorophosphate even if there is a surplus in a certain period of time, the downstream market will also have a strong digestion capacity, short-term fluctuations are possible, but the market outlook is good in the long run. "

When will the shortage tide and the rising price tide stop? A responsible person in charge of science and technology for 99 years predicts that the tight trend of supply and demand of lithium hexafluorophosphate will not improve before the third quarter of 2022, and the price will not fall too much.

"judging from the current price of raw materials, the relatively reasonable price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is about 250000 yuan / ton." in Sun Xinhua's view, lithium hexafluorophosphate will continue to be tight in supply in the second half of this year, and the price will be strong; supply and demand will be tight in the first half of 2022, and a balance between supply and demand is expected in the second half of 2022, and prices will decline slowly.

Citic Securities has previously predicted that lithium hexafluorophosphate will last until at least the second half of 2022, and there will be oversupply in most links of the electrolyte industry chain after 2023, which may lead to a new price cycle.

In addition, the capital market is also optimistic about lithium hexafluorophosphate. Up to now, the share prices of many lithium hexafluorophosphate listed companies, such as Yongtai Technology, Tianji shares, Yan'an Bikang, Polyfluoroduo, Tianci Materials, Cunninghamia lanceolata, Binhua, and so on, have risen more than 100% this year.