Lithium iron phosphate will have a tendency to rise again. According to data released by the China Automobile Association on August 11, the number of power batteries installed in China was 11.3 GWH in July, up 125.0% from the same period last year and 1.7% from the previous month. Among them, the total loading of ternary batteries was 5.5GWh, up 67.5 percent from the same period last year, down 8.2 percent from the previous month; and lithium iron phosphate batteries totaled 5.8GWhs, up 235.5 percent from the same period last year and 13.4 percent from the previous year.
This is also the first time in the past three years that the monthly loading capacity of lithium iron phosphate batteries has exceeded that of ternary lithium batteries. In the future, will it become the norm in the power battery market when it is occupied by lithium iron phosphate batteries?
"in July, lithium iron phosphate super ternary is normal." In the view of Ma Xiaoli, deputy secretary general of the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, the rising price of raw materials has put greater pressure on the industry; in addition, resource dependence is also a deficiency of ternary lithium power, but the advantage of ternary lithium power is also obvious. "therefore, based on market choice and consumer positioning of different models, it is most reasonable for the market to choose."
Wang Rongjin, partner of Shanghai Jinbang Equity Investment Management Company, said that lithium iron phosphate batteries have obvious advantages of low cost, high safety and long cycle life, and lithium iron phosphate may be the main type of medium and low-priced models in the future. some medium and high-price models are mainly ternary. At present, the domestic new energy vehicle market is a "dumbbell", with low-price Wuling and high-price Weiwei as the mainstream. "with the release of mid-range models in the future, more enterprises may choose lithium iron phosphate batteries." Wang Rongjin analyzed and said.
According to the China Automobile Association, from January to July, the total number of power batteries installed in China totaled 63.8 GWH, an increase of 183.5% over the same period last year. Among them, the total loading of ternary batteries was 35.6 GWH, accounting for 55.8% of the total loading, up 124.3% over the same period last year; and the total loading of lithium iron phosphate batteries was 28.0 GWH, accounting for 43.9% of the total loading, up 333.0% over the same period last year.
"Tesla Model 3 and BYD models continue to sell well, driving the permeability of lithium iron phosphate." According to the analysis of Bai Yiyang of the International Research Department of China Merchants Bank, in addition to the factors of star car companies, lithium iron phosphate batteries exceed market expectations. on the one hand, car companies need to balance the promotion of new energy models and cost control, and the overall selling cost of lithium iron phosphate models is better than ternary. More lithium iron phosphate models are launched at the supply end. On the other hand, with the gradual popularization of charging piles, consumers gradually return to rationality in the pursuit of mileage, the permeability of A00 models increases, and the proportion of lithium iron phosphate increases month by month.
"in July, Wuling (pure electric models) sold a lot, and the growth of lithium iron phosphate was mainly driven by BYD sales." Wang Rongjin said.
Five companies sold more than 10,000 new energy vehicles in July, with BYD ranking first with sales of 51000 vehicles, followed by Tesla China, which sold 33000 vehicles, and SAIC GM Wuling ranked third with 27000 vehicles, according to data from the Automobile Association.
Since it was overtaken by ternary lithium battery in 2018, the market share of lithium iron phosphate battery has been declining, and the market share was as low as 12.8% at one time. However, with the continuous strong demand downstream, the output of lithium iron phosphate battery is also rising. After realizing the "counterattack" in May this year, the output has exceeded ternary batteries for three months in a row.
China International Capital Corporation, Chuancai Securities and other institutions expect that the proportion of lithium iron phosphate batteries in the passenger car field still has room to improve in the future, and is expected to reach a level of about 50%.
"although Ternary Lithium still has a clear advantage in the annual cumulative data, it is expected that Lithium Iron Phosphate will fully exceed the loading capacity of Ternary Lithium by the fourth quarter." Some people in the industry predict that.
