[SMM Analysis] what is the impact of the "world's first" sodium ion battery in Ningde era on the lithium industry?

SMM August 2: July 29th, Ningde era warm-up sodium ion battery finally appeared on the stage, with many advantages, once released caused an uproar in the industry, for a time, the discussion about sodium ion battery is very loud, and the concept stock of sodium ion battery is also strong in the days before and after Ningde era released its sodium ion battery forecast, setting a record of several shares trading limit. So what's so good about sodium-ion batteries? What kind of impact will its emergence have on lithium-ion batteries? Let's take a look at the in-depth analysis of SMM.

What is the sanctity of sodium ion battery? How is it different from lithium-ion batteries?

Similar to lithium-ion battery, sodium-ion battery is a kind of secondary battery (rechargeable battery), which mainly depends on the movement of sodium ion between positive and negative electrodes.

Compared with lithium ion, sodium ion is weaker in the key electrochemical performance energy density. According to the public data, the working voltage of sodium ion battery is 2.8V-3.5V, and the energy density of existing material system is only 100W / kg. Although this data is higher than 2V and 40-50W / kg of lead-acid battery, it is much lower than the energy density of current lithium-ion battery of 3.0V-4.5V and 150-250WH/KG.

It should be noted that the current hot new energy vehicle power battery is more inclined to pursue the battery with high energy density and high mileage, so from the aspect of electrochemical performance energy density, sodium ion battery because of its low energy density, it is difficult to replace lithium-ion battery to become the mainstream route.

In addition, the radius of sodium ion is much higher than that of lithium ion, which will also become an important factor limiting the development of sodium battery. Mainly from three aspects:

One is the degree of chimerism with the negative material. As we all know, the charge and discharge process of the battery is essentially a process of ion de-embedding, which also requires materials to store ions in both the positive and negative electrodes of the battery. In lithium-ion batteries, most of the negative electrodes are graphite negative electrodes, and because of its honeycomb structure, the graphite layer can be well intercalated with lithium ion.

However, the radius of sodium ion is much higher than that of lithium ion, which also means that sodium ion can not be completely embedded in graphite structure, and the use of embeddable hard carbon or other anode materials will greatly affect the overall energy density of the battery. This is not friendly for new energy power batteries in pursuit of high energy density batteries.

The second is to lower the overall charge and discharge performance of the battery. Because the radius of sodium ion is larger than that of lithium ion, it leads to its slow migration speed and low moving rate in the battery structure, which also means that under the same specification, the charge and discharge cycle of sodium battery is longer than that of lithium ion battery, which reduces the overall charge and discharge performance of the battery.

The last point is to affect the cycle life of the battery. Because of the large radius of sodium ion, it is easier to lead to the volume expansion of electrode material than lithium ion in the process of charge-discharge intercalation, and some sodium ions can not be embedded smoothly in the process of intercalation, resulting in irreversible loss of battery capacity. the battery attenuation rate increases, affecting the cycle life of the battery itself.

However, even if the sodium-ion battery has many disadvantages compared to the lithium-ion battery, the grand advent of the sodium-ion battery is enough to prove the significance of its existence. In SMM's view, the biggest advantage of sodium-ion batteries lies in cost. With the rapid development of the new energy industry, the demand in areas such as 3C and small power has also increased in recent years, and the overall demand for upstream resources in the lithium battery industry is also increasing day by day, forming a situation of resource run to a certain extent, lithium carbonate, cobalt sulfate and other raw materials prices have risen sharply. According to the historical price of SMM, the price of lithium carbonate alone has risen from 51500 yuan / ton at the end of 2020 to 89000 yuan / ton today, an increase of 72.8%. The price of cobalt sulfate has also risen from 57500 yuan / ton at the end of the year to 81000 yuan / ton today. From this, it is not difficult to see that the resource storage capacity of the upstream raw material side is limited, and it is "hard to absolve itself of the blame" in the process of rising prices.

"Click to see more historical prices of SMM Metals.

It is understood that the crustal abundance of lithium ion is only 0.0065%, and the amount of economically exploitable resources is limited, and there is a great difference between high and low quality. at the same time, there is a serious uneven distribution, including South America, Australia and other places where high-quality resources are concentrated. This also makes China, as a major consumer of lithium resources in the world, but highly dependent on the supply of imported raw materials.

But in contrast, the abundance of sodium ions in the earth's crust is 2.75%, which is much higher than 0.0065% of lithium ions, and is relatively widely distributed around the world, which makes sodium-ion batteries have an advantage over lithium in terms of raw material costs after the scale of the industry.

What are the advantages of sodium ion batteries in Ningde era?

According to the battery performance information released at the Ningde Times press conference, this battery has many bright spots:

1. In terms of energy density, according to Ningde era data, the single energy density of the first generation of sodium ion batteries will reach an astonishing 160WhCompkg, the highest level in the world, and an increase of about 30% compared with the current general energy density of 120-130wh/kg in the sodium ion battery industry.

2. Excellent fast charging performance, the battery can be charged to 80% of the charge for 15 minutes at room temperature, and has excellent low temperature performance, excellent thermal stability and capacity retention of more than 90% at the low temperature of minus 20 degrees Celsius.

3. The system integration efficiency of the battery can reach more than 80%. At the same time, it can be mixed with lithium-ion battery, mix two different batteries, connect them in series, and achieve precise control through BMS.

4. Manufacturing process: the current manufacturing process of sodium ion lithium-ion battery is similar to that of lithium-ion battery, and its equipment can be used in general. At the same time, this data is close to the current energy density level of lithium iron phosphate, far exceeding the 50wh/kg of lead-acid batteries.

What scenarios may sodium ions be used in the future?

First of all, the battery end of the two-wheeler. Although the sodium ion battery released in Ningde era far exceeds the average level of the industry, there is still a certain gap between lithium iron phosphate and ternary lithium battery, before its energy density makes a breakthrough, it is difficult to carry out large-scale application in the automobile end. However, sodium ion batteries may be a good choice for two-wheeler batteries, which are mainly focused on short-and medium-distance movements, and the end customers are extremely price-sensitive.

The second is its application in high latitudes. This is related to the poor performance of lithium-ion batteries at low temperatures. it is reported that due to their own characteristics, lithium-ion batteries are prone to decrease in activity and slow down in the internal chemical reaction rate in cold scenes. the capacity retention rate is greatly reduced, therefore, the application of lithium-ion battery is greatly limited in high latitudes. However, looking at sodium ions, some data show that the sodium ion battery still has 90% Discharge capacity retention at-20 ℃ and can still be used normally at-38 ℃ without special optimization, and the cost will be effectively controlled. this characteristic broadens the battery usage scene to some extent and fills the gap in this field.

The third is the field of energy storage. Compared with the previous lead-acid batteries used in energy storage fields such as 5G base stations, sodium ion batteries with the advantages of high energy density, long cycle life, high safety performance and low cost are better than lead-acid batteries in terms of life cycle cost. it is expected to become a high-quality substitute for lead-acid batteries in the field of energy storage. Its excellent low temperature performance and mash-up characteristics allow manufacturers to make flexible choices according to the local temperature environment, power generation, electricity consumption, use scenarios and so on.

Fourth, in the field of power exchange, under the circumstances that the current country has made great efforts to develop the power exchange mode, and most of the major automobile enterprises have layout in this direction, the low-cost characteristic of sodium ion can reduce the construction cost of the exchange station to a certain extent, increase the average battery reserve of the exchange station under the condition of constant total investment, and at the same time shorten the charging time because of its better fast charging performance compared to lithium-ion battery. Improve the turnover rate of the battery and the daily service capacity of the replacement power station, which is convenient for manufacturers to shorten the payback period of investment and speed up the process of power exchange service. This is also true in the field of power exchange for two-wheelers.

Will sodium-ion batteries replace lithium-ion batteries?

Institutional comments:

After Ningde Times first announced that it would release sodium-ion batteries, in response to questions in the industry about whether sodium-ion batteries will replace lithium-ion batteries, Zhongtai Securities said that sodium-ion batteries will not change the medium-and long-term prosperity of lithium. Zhongtai Securities believes that lithium-ion battery is still the mainstream technology route of new energy battery.

Guotai Junan Securities said that 70% of China's lithium resources need to be imported, and sodium-ion batteries are the support and guarantee of lithium-ion batteries. The main scenarios for the development of sodium ion batteries are base stations, electric bicycles and other areas that do not require high energy density, which is expected to have the advantages of low cost and good safety in the future, which is a good supplement to the ternary high nickel technology.

Huajin Securities believes that the sodium ion battery is still in the early stage of industrialization, and it is expected to replace part of the low energy density power lithium battery market and energy storage market after industrialization.

Northeast Securities believes that the matching degree of sodium ion battery and new energy vehicle battery demand is low, and there is no possibility of replacing lithium battery to become the mainstream technology in the power field.

Huaan Securities also said that the low energy density and cycle performance of sodium ion batteries correspond to more auxiliary material consumption and higher kilowatt-hour costs. In addition to the large-scale factors, the cost reduction of sodium ion batteries still faces many obstacles.

In addition, Ping an Securities said that in view of the low energy density and limited room for improvement of sodium ion batteries, they are more likely to play a role as a substitute for new energy segments in the industry. It is expected to take the lead in the field of energy storage, low-speed vehicles and some low-endurance passenger vehicles with low energy density requirements and strong cost sensitivity, and the impact on the medium-and high-end passenger car market is very limited.

SMM exclusive comments:

Considering the various characteristics of sodium ion, SMM believes that although sodium ion battery is still in the early stage of industrialization, according to the information released in Ningde era, the advantages of sodium ion battery are more prominent, even though it still has a certain gap with lithium ion battery in terms of energy density, it cannot be used in the field of new energy vehicles with high energy density, but it is undeniable. Its cost advantages, fast charging performance and low temperature performance enable it to achieve differential positioning with lithium-ion batteries. It is expected to partially replace lithium-ion batteries in two-wheeled vehicles, energy storage, power exchange, and some high-latitude scenarios.