[institutional Review] Warburg Securities: battery manufacturers are deeply bound to the upper and middle reaches to promote the demand take-off of the lithium power industry chain.

Under the dual pressure of the supply chain competition in the downstream and the shortage of lithium resources in the upstream, the upstream lithium resource layout of battery manufacturers will effectively alleviate the problem of profit space compression.

On the evening of May 27th, Tianci announced that Ningde Times, the leading global lithium battery company, will purchase electrolyte products from the company and supply Ningde Times with a corresponding quantity of electrolyte products with an estimated consumption of 15000 tons of lithium hexafluorophosphate. Under the accelerated production expansion layout of battery manufacturers, the demand for lithium materials in the middle and upper reaches will also continue to be strong. We believe that under the stimulation of the Biden government's continued increase in the new energy vehicle market, the market in the three major economies of China, the United States and Europe will continue to grow at a high speed, and the prosperity of the mid-stream battery and battery materials will remain at a high level. From the strategic cooperation of Ningde era, we can see that the high-quality supply of high-quality materials in the middle and upper reaches will continue to maintain a high prosperity, in addition to electrolytes, under the trend of high nickel, the leading manufacturers with high-nickel ternary bibcock and diaphragm and negative electrodes with scale advantages will still have investment value.

Yiwei Lithium can join hands with Huayou Cobalt Industry to distribute nickel and cobalt resources, Tesla announced the procurement of ore raw materials from Australia to lock supply, the importance of upstream resource supply is highlighted.

The rising price of upstream resources puts more pressure on battery manufacturers, so mainstream positive or battery enterprises all bind upstream resources by seeking cooperation with upstream resources, so as to reduce the negative impact of rising prices and damaged supply under supply contraction. under the situation that it is difficult to solve the problem of tight supply of battery metal resources, it will be a top priority to seek long-term cooperation in upstream resources.

Investment advice:

Under the high magnanimity of the new energy vehicle industry, the continuous expansion of the production capacity of battery manufacturers brings the growth opportunities of the lithium industry chain.

With the capacity expansion of mainstream battery manufacturers (Ningde Times, LG, Guoxuan Tech, Yiwei Lithium Energy), the demand and order locking of mid-stream battery materials are becoming increasingly important. From the fact that Ningde Times and Tianzi signed a large electrolyte order to lock 55% of their production capacity, we can see that the promotion of downstream demand has also led to a strong order demand of mid-stream battery materials manufacturers. We can pay attention to the leading manufacturers with obvious advantages of cost and economies of scale in the field of electrolyte and diaphragm with low technical barriers and the integrated layout of upstream and downstream, pay attention to the leading cathode material manufacturers with deep layout of high nickel ternary technology in cathode materials and obvious advantages in overseas business expansion.

High-cost production capacity under the clear focus on cost and resource advantages obvious upstream lithium mining enterprises.

Although the lithium mining market continues to strengthen, it is difficult for prices to continue the bull market that has soared in 15-16 years, so we should pay more attention to the relevant listed companies with low mining costs and high-quality lithium ore resources. they can get higher gross margins with lower costs in the upward price, so their performance flexibility is relatively greater. In addition, domestic listed companies of related resources have integrated production and sales layout of lithium salt through lithium mining. With the continuous improvement of the new energy vehicle market, terminal demand car companies seek to extend upward and sign supply agreements with lithium salt manufacturers directly to reduce the cost of the industrial chain. Listed companies with relevant integrated layout are expected to continue to expand market share by virtue of price advantages.

Risk Tips:

The complex growth of the new energy vehicle industry is less than expected, the price of raw materials in the industrial chain fluctuates sharply, and the progress of new technology batteries exceeds expectations.