[minutes] what is the direction of cobalt and lithium enterprises under the impact of solid-state batteries?

SMM2 March 22: in today's online live conference hosted by SMM, Yuan Ye, a new energy analyst at SMM, brought "where is the direction of cobalt and lithium enterprises with the impact of solid-state batteries?" In his keynote speech, Yuan Ye said that solid-state batteries will transform all-solid electrolytes and negative metal lithium, but the problems of electrical conductivity, safety, stability and high cost still need to be solved. Enterprises in the fields of high nickel cathode, lithium carbonate and silicon-carbon negative electrode will create new opportunities due to solid-state batteries, while electrolyte and diaphragm enterprises will have an impact.

Recently, major car companies have frequently released solid-state batteries, long-range batteries, fast charging and other "cool techs". For example, on January 9, Weilai officially released 150kWh battery packs, which can achieve the energy density of 360Wh/kg, and is scheduled for delivery in the fourth quarter of 2022. Weilai's next step will be to use solid-state batteries with a range of 1000 kilometers in new models. Toyota's solid-state battery can be recharged for 10 minutes and has a range of 500 kilometers. Toyota plans to launch a solid-state battery prototype car in 2022.

What exactly is a solid-state battery and how is it different from traditional lithium batteries?

Compared with lithium battery, solid-state battery is superior to lithium battery in terms of energy density, safety and cost. Solid-state batteries have a higher upper limit of energy density; due to specific structural differences, solid-state batteries have higher safety; and under large-scale production, the cost of solid-state batteries is expected to be lower than that of lithium batteries.

Progress of mainstream enterprises

Solid-state batteries will enter a small-scale application period and achieve mass production in 2025, breaking through the energy density bottleneck of 500Wh/kg. At present, the leading car has arranged solid-state batteries and will achieve small-scale mass production around 2025.

(CFIUS), the committee on foreign investment in the United States, has agreed to invest $100m in QuantumScape, a battery technology company, and will join the board of QuantumScape, a derivative of Stanford University's (Stanford University). Through the investment, the two companies formed a joint venture with plans to bring solid-state battery technology to market by 2025.

On January 19, 2021, Ningde era published two patents related to two kinds of solid-state batteries, "a preparation method of solid-state electrolyte" and "a sulfide solid-state electrolyte sheet and its preparation method".

It was disclosed in July 2020 that Ganfeng Lithium Industry's first-generation 200 million watt-hour solid-state battery pilot line has been successfully put into production, and the product performance has fully reached the level of samples developed by the company's solid-state battery research and development team. Is actively docking solid-state battery boarding cooperation with German Volkswagen and other car factory customers.

On July 3, 2020, Huineng Science and Technology mainland headquarters and global industrial base project was signed in the people's Government of Lin'an District, Hangzhou, with a total investment of 38 billion yuan. Projects include the construction of 2GWh, 5GWh solid-state lithium ceramic battery core industrialization projects, and will consider joint ventures with car companies to build production lines. After all the projects are completed and reach production, it is expected that the annual sales output value will be more than 30 billion yuan.

In June 2020, Volkswagen increased its investment in solid-state battery developer QuantumScap by $200m. Volkswagen announced that through QuantumScape's solid-state battery, Volkswagen can increase the comprehensive range of e-Golf from 300km to 750km. Volkswagen will jointly invest with QuantumScape to build a solid-state battery production line by 2025.

Effect of solid State Battery on Cobalt and Lithium

In terms of cobalt, although the trend of reducing cobalt is still there, the costs and benefits also need to be taken into account; whether it is high-nickel batteries and cobalt-free batteries in solid-state batteries, it will take time for technological research and development breakthroughs. If the price of cobalt does not fluctuate greatly, as the rare metal which mainly plays a stabilizing role, it is expected that the global demand for cobalt in the new energy vehicle industry will still increase from 2020 to 2023.

In the aspect of lithium, the cathode of solid-state battery is still high-nickel material, and the lithium raw material of high-nickel cathode material is mainly battery-grade lithium hydroxide. under the trend of high nickelization, the demand for lithium hydroxide increases significantly, while the demand for lithium metal in the "pre-lithification" of solid-state battery will increase obviously.

Opportunities for the development of the industry

Solid-state batteries will realize the transformation of electrolyte all-solid state and negative metal lithium, but the problems of electrical conductivity, safety, stability and high cost still need to be solved; enterprises in the fields of high nickel positive electrode, lithium carbonate and silicon-carbon negative electrode will create new opportunities due to solid-state batteries, while electrolyte and separator enterprises will have an impact.