According to the preliminary estimate of EV Sales, the global sales of new energy vehicles in 2020 will be about 3.24 million, an increase of 46.61% over the same period last year. According to data released by South Korean market research firm SNE Research, the global installed capacity of power batteries on electric vehicles reached 137 GWH in 2020, an increase of 17% over the same period last year.
As we all know, copper foil is the main material of negative current collector for lithium battery because of its good conductivity. Data show that in China's total lithium copper foil shipments, power battery copper foil has accounted for more than 50%, is currently the largest application field. From a global point of view, copper foil for power batteries is also the market with the largest growing demand.
At present, the downstream battery manufacturers of lithium copper foil around the world have expanded production on a large scale. Among them, the battery capacity of Ningde era will be expanded to 450G by 2025. LG Chemical plans to expand its planned capacity to 300G by 2023. Ski plans to expand its capacity to 100GWh by 2025. According to industry estimates, the production of 1GWh lithium battery requires about 6 μ m of copper foil 700 tons, 8 μ m copper foil needs 900 tons, the future demand for lithium copper foil will usher in explosive growth opportunities.
According to the feedback of major domestic lithium copper foil manufacturers, the copper foil production lines in the factory are in a state of full production and high load. Even so, due to the slow release of new copper foil production capacity, lithium copper foil is expected to be in short supply in 2021.
"the tight supply of lithium copper foil mainly comes from two reasons. At present, the demand side continues to improve, and the customer demand for downstream lithium batteries is growing exponentially, including the rapid growth of power batteries and high-end consumer batteries, while the supply-side production capacity is limited. The capacity release rate of domestic lithium copper foil in the past two years can not keep up with the expansion rate of customers." An industry insider analyzed it.
Anxin Securities pointed out that in 2020, the world has a lithium copper foil production capacity of about 295000 tons, of which about 153000 tons at home and about 140000 tons overseas. It is estimated that the global capacity of lithium copper foil in 2021 is about 360000 tons, including 190000 tons at home and 170000 tons overseas. It is reported that in the first half of 2020, due to the relatively low demand for new energy vehicles, major manufacturers turned to produce standard foil; demand has been booming since the second half of 2020, lithium copper foil and downstream battery manufacturers are lack of lithium copper foil inventory.
Scarcity is the most precious thing, and the shortage of supply has also led to a rise in the price of copper foil. Industry analysts said that so far copper prices and copper foil prices have no signs of weakening, coupled with the slow progress of domestic copper foil manufacturers to expand production, copper foil prices are likely to continue to rise.
In the face of the demand gap, lithium copper foil enterprises are accelerating capacity expansion.
Copper crown copper foil plans to raise 1.2 billion yuan for the annual production of 20, 000 tons of ultra-thin electronic copper foil for high-precision energy storage; No. 1 Science and Technology plans to raise about 716 million yuan for the annual production and construction project of 10, 000 tons of high-performance electronic copper foil. Longdian Huaxin invested 10 billion yuan to build lithium copper foil East China headquarters project, which will produce 50, 000 tons of 6-8 μ m lithium copper foil per year. Jiayuan Science and Technology plans to invest 1.35 billion yuan in cooperation with Jiangxi Longnan Economic and technological Development Zone to build a 20, 000-ton electrolytic copper foil project; Lingbao Baoxin has an annual production capacity of 40, 000 tons of lithium copper foil; Nuode shares plan to raise a total of no more than 1.42 billion yuan. Used to invest 15000 tons of high-performance very thin lithium copper foil project.
From the perspective of the market competition pattern of the power battery industry, the concentration of China's power battery market is increasing, and Ningde era and BYD have a great demand for lithium copper foil. The orders of domestic head power battery enterprises can even affect the whole lithium copper foil industry. Therefore, copper foil suppliers have sought to supply these head power battery enterprises.
Technically speaking, the thickness of lithium copper foil has a significant impact on the negative electrode manufacturing process and battery performance, and the use of lighter lithium copper foil is the future trend. The smaller the thickness of lithium copper foil, on the one hand, the lighter the weight of the battery, the smaller the resistance, the performance of the battery will be further improved; on the other hand, reduce the quality of copper foil on the battery, but also reduce the raw material cost of copper foil and increase the energy density.
It is understood that the current mainstream trend of reducing the thickness of copper foil from 8 μ m to 6 μ m can increase the amount of active material and thicken the slurry coating thickness under the condition of constant core volume, which will directly promote the increase of core energy density. According to the calculation of Bank of China Securities, the production capacity of 6 μ m copper foil is concentrated in China. It is estimated that the effective production capacity of 6 μ m copper foil in China from 2020 to 2022 is 52000 tons, 69000 tons and 90, 000 tons respectively, and the gap between supply and demand is 25000 tons, 6200 tons and 16300 tons respectively.
On one side, the fierce battle of 6 μ m copper foil is raging, and on the other hand, there are domestic lithium copper foil enterprises moving towards 4 μ m and 5 μ m. It is understood that Nord's ultra-thin copper foil 4.5 μ m-5 μ m has been mass produced and supplied, and Jiayuan Technology also said in the 2020 semi-annual report that it has successfully developed and produced very thin lithium copper foil below 6 μ m in small batches.
Bank of China Securities estimates that from 2020 to 2022, the global market space for lithium copper foil will be 15.2 billion yuan, 22.3 billion yuan and 29.2 billion yuan respectively. It is expected to reach 58 billion yuan in 2025, and the average annual compound growth rate from 2020 to 2025 is expected to reach 30.6%. Among them, the market space of 6 μ m lithium copper foil is expected to reach 30.4 billion yuan in 2025, accounting for 52% of the global lithium copper foil market, with an average annual compound growth rate of 64.9% from 2020 to 2025.
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