SMM Evening Comments (Sep 15): Shanghai nonferrous metals closed mostly higher, tin fell 0.23%

SHANGHAI, Sep 15 (SMM) — SHFE nonferrous metals rose for the most part on Tuesday September 15 as China's investment and consumption data in August improved on the macro level, leading to the optimistic investment sentiment.

Unemployment in the U.K. has risen in the three months to July, the latest official data published Tuesday showed, despite this period marking the beginning of looser restrictions.

The headline unemployment rate for May to July stood at 4.1%, up from the 3.9% figure seen in the previous three month period, which covered the start of the U.K.‘s lockdown that began in late March, the U.K.’s Office for National Statistics (ONS) said.

Zinc, the best performer, rose 1.78%, aluminium advanced 1.08%, lead climbed 1.41%, nickel went up 0.91% and copper gained 0.17%, while tin edged down 0.23%.

A total of 89 vessels carrying 14.64 million mt of iron ore arrived at major Chinese ports during September 6-12, SMM estimates. This was up 540,000 mt from the previous week, and 710,000 mt from the same period last year. The amount of arrivals at major Shandong ports surged week on week, while that in Tangshan and Tianjin fell.

The ferrous complex fell across the board. Hot-rolled coil fell 1.51%, rebar shed 1.88% and iron ore went down 1.78%.

Copper: The most-traded SHFE 2010 copper contract finished the day 0.17% higher at 52,160 yuan/mt today. Investors' optimistic expectations for macro economy continued to expand. According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China today, the added value of China's industrial production increased by 0.4% from January to August, and the cumulative growth rate turned from negative to positive; The added value of industrial production increased by 5.6% on the year, 0.8 percentage points higher from July, and reached a new high this year. The economy continues to show a recovery trend, supporting copper prices on a high level. Whether the contract could maintain its upward trend will come under scrutiny tonight.

Aluminium: The most-liquid SHFE 2010 aluminium contract closed up 1.08% at 14,570 yuan/mt. Open interest fell 3,546 lots to 123,000 lots. The flow of the fund will come under scrutiny.

Zinc: The most-active SHFE 2010 zinc contract climbed to an intraday high of 20,065 yuan/mt and finished the day 1.78% higher at 20,010 yuan/mt. The contract rose for three consecutive days. Open interest rose 513 lots to 84,356 lots. Inventories continued to decline, the offer prices of imported ores gradually fell, and the demand of winter stocks disturbed market sentiment in advance, leading to pessimistic expectations of the supply of ores in Q4. The contract is expected to remain above 20,000 yuan/mt tonight in choppy trading.

Nickel: The most-traded SHFE 2011 nickel contract finished the day 0.91% higher at 118,790 yuan/mt today. Open interest fell 9,422 lots to 125,671 lots. Whether the contract could remain above 118,500 yuan/mt will be watched tonight.

Lead: The most-traded SHFE 2010 lead contract closed up 1.41% at 15,145 yuan/mt today. Open interest fell 988 lots to 25,297 lots. China's investment and consumption data in August improved on the macro level, leading to the optimistic investment sentiment. Whether the contract could remain above 15,200 yuan/mt will be watched tonight.

Tin: The most-liquid SHFE 2011 tin contract ended 0.23% lower at 143,750 yuan/mt today. Open interest rose 506 lots to 22,255 lots. Pressure below is expected to around 60-day moving average of 143,000 yuan/mt.