SMM News: since the beginning of August, the black variety as a whole has entered a downward trend, and the phased top has been formed. As the four major overseas mines accelerate to make up for the shortfall this year, iron ore will face the dilemma of loose supply.
Inventory accumulation is obvious
The recent regulatory intention of the iron ore market is obvious, from the revision of the delivery rules of large merchants, to the news reports of the mainstream media, and this week it is rumored that it is preparing to add a new plant warehouse, all of which show the market's determination to regulate and control iron ore prices. In addition, the actual demand for rebar is weaker than expected, which leads to a drop in prices, while the high cost of raw materials makes steel mills' profits shrink rapidly. at present, the fundamentals of iron ore are still strong, but the driving force is insufficient to continue to move higher. From the perspective of shipping data, recent shipments rebounded, in which Australian port maintenance came to an end, Australia is expected to maintain shipments before BHP maintenance is carried out, while Brazil has a significant increase, so Brazilian iron ore supply is expected to increase in the third quarter. Some time ago, the concentrated shipments of Macau and Pakistan have formed obvious pressure on the port iron ore inventory, superimposed on the current hot metal output has declined, the port dredging volume has dropped, and the inventory accumulation is very obvious.
Production reduction of Tangshan Iron and Steel Co., Ltd.
Hot metal production has declined slightly this week after weeks of small growth. Since June, steel mills have maintained high start-up and close to full production. Up to now, blast furnace production has not been smooth, coupled with rapid shrinking profits. It is expected that the overhaul of steel mills may increase, hot metal production is generally high, and iron ore demand appears at the top of stages.
At present, the performance of rebar is slightly weaker. As a result of increased overhaul at steel mills, rebar production fell slightly this week by 15000 tons to 3.849 million tons, but it was still higher than the 330000 tons in the same period last year. The rebar factory warehouse accumulates continuously, the social inventory decreases to increase, and the inventory margin goes bad. The demand in North China and Southwest China is weak due to the influence of the weather. Overall, the apparent demand for rebar fell back to 3.72 million tons, and the actual demand was lower than expected.
The profits of steel companies are lower.
As of August 28, the spot profit of rebar in blast furnace steelmaking is 293.7 yuan / ton, and that of electric furnace steelmaking is 25.76 yuan / ton, and the profit center continues to move down. Recently, steel prices have fallen again, and profits per ton of steel have fallen compared with the previous period. At present, the average is on the edge of loss, and capacity utilization will continue to decline.
On the supply side, the production enthusiasm of steel mills has not been reduced, and crude steel output has reached another all-time high. although the production of Tangshan Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. has been limited, and the second round of central eco-environmental protection inspectors will be fully launched, the actual impact is limited, and the supply side may continue to maintain a high level. On the demand side, with the advent of the traditional peak season, there will be a pick-up.
Overall, the early rapid rise in iron ore has reflected the market expectations for the future demand peak season, in the actual demand can not be confirmed at the moment, if the late demand release is less than expected, iron ore as the raw material of the black series will also continue to adjust. At present, crude steel production continues to hit a record high, inventory accumulation will continue, generally speaking, the trend of iron ore is empty.
Operation strategy, iron ore phased head has been formed, since June, the main iron ore contract fell below the 20-day resistance moving average for the first time. This line serves as the reference position for the short target range of this downtrend. The detailed reasons for judging the entry point are as follows:
1. On August 25, the main iron ore 2101 contract closed at 813.5 yuan / ton, which fell below the daily K entity support line. We use this as the entry point of the daily line level short selling signal.
two。 At present, iron ore broke through the low point connection on August 23, which can be used as an auxiliary judgment of the entry signal and strengthen the reason for shorting.
3. Due to the great fluctuation of iron ore varieties, the rapid decline after the breakthrough of the daily K-line led to a lower closing price, so wait for the rebound to break through the range of 20% of the daily K-line and 30% of the daily K-line before entering the market the next day, so as to reduce the stop-loss cost.
In terms of transaction plan:
1. Direction of buying and selling: sell iron ore call options.
two。 Admission: 2101, about 850 murals, 900 yuan / ton.
3. Stop-loss point: 2101 about 940 won 960 yuan / ton.
The content of this article is for reference only, and enter the market at your own risk.
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