Minutes of Zinc Morning meeting in SMM on July 30th
Spot fundamentals
Shanghai: morning holder steady Shengshui quotation, market ordinary zinc brand transaction concentrated in the SMM net average price to rise 5 yuan / ton, the market followed quotation morning to 2008 contract rising water 80 yuan / ton, after the rapid transaction, the holder raised the rising water quotation to 90 yuan / ton; entered the second period of time, the market trading is relatively light, the holder maintains rising water 90 yuan 95 yuan / ton; Zinc shock upstream, downstream purchase intention decreased yesterday, but due to tight supply, Shanghai spot water remained stable. (bullish)
Ningbo: zinc prices fluctuated higher yesterday. In the first trading session, Tiefeng, Xikuang and Nanhua newspaper rose about 100 yuan / ton for the August contract, Kirin reported about 130 yuan / ton for the August contract, and Huize reported that around 150 yuan / ton for the August contract. Zinc price strength market activity is lower, trading is lighter, downstream fear of heights and wait-and-see mood is stronger, yesterday's Ningbo market turnover is weaker than the day before. (bullish)
Guangdong: in the first trading session, the price is high and fluctuating, the downstream is more wait-and-see and less pick-up, the shippers are relatively active, and the traders receive an appropriate amount of discounts. Kirin, Mengzi, Huize and Tiefeng quoted a discount of 10-20 yuan / ton for the September contract of Shanghai zinc. In the second trading session, futures prices strengthened again, with the main contract approaching 18500 yuan / ton. the price rise led to even worse purchasing demand downstream, and the unsmooth shipments of consignors continued to reduce rising water shipments. On the whole, in the process of rising prices, the spot discount pressure increased. Kirin, Mengzi, Huize and Tiefeng offer a discount of 20-30 yuan per ton for the September contract of Shanghai zinc. (bullish)
Tianjin: yesterday, Shanghai Zinc concussion rose, and the spot market raised the discount quotation, which was relatively uniform. The ordinary brand Bering News quoted a rise of 200 yuan per ton for the 08 contract, and Hongyi quoted a rise of 250 yuan per ton for the 08 contract. Chi Hong quoted a rise of 200 yuan per ton for the 08 contract, and the high-priced brand Zijin quoted a rise of 300 yuan per ton for the August contract, while Baiyin quoted a rise of 180 yuan per ton for the 08 contract. The fourth Ring Road (delivered) is quoted at 100-150 yuan / ton for the 08 contract, and ha zinc (including out of the warehouse) is quoted at 120 yuan / ton for the 08 contract. Zinc prices rose and fell back yesterday, the first period of time, the market maintained the day before yesterday rising water shipments, but smelter shipments were less, traders further bid shipments, of which Hongye and Zijin brands rose more; downstream, futures prices and rising water rose further, downstream wait-and-see will gradually thicken, to maintain weak rigid demand procurement. On the whole, yesterday's turnover was slightly weaker than that of the day before yesterday. (bullish)
Today's forecast zinc price: overnight Lun zinc recorded three Lianyang, the daily K center of gravity further moved up, the lower 5 / 10 line to provide support, the upper Bollinger Road on the rail to form compression, MACD indicators Yang column expansion. Overnight LME inventory surged 14475 tons to 187475 tons, or 8.37%. The weakness of the US index boosted the trend of metals, Lun Zinc rose strongly, and the Federal Reserve maintained ultra-loose monetary policy to support the upside of Lunzn Zinc, focusing on overseas consumption in the short term. The positive pillar was recorded in Shanghai zinc overnight, jumping away from the multiple arrangement pattern of the lower averages, the upper Bollinger Road was suppressed, and the opening of KDJ index was expanded. The long-term strength of overnight funds shows to promote the strong operation of Shanghai zinc, refresh the recent high level, under the background of macro water release, domestic foreign trade and foreign investment are gradually stabilized, and long-term terminal consumption is expected to support the upward trend of Shanghai zinc, but geopolitics increases short-term risk.
Today's forecast: the price of lun zinc is expected to operate in the range of 2270-2320 US dollars per ton. The contract price of Shanghai Zinc 2009 is expected to run in the range of 18500-19000 yuan / ton, and domestic zinc is expected to rise by 410 yuan / ton.
