[summary of SMM Morning meeting] fundamentals support temporarily strong overnight Shanghai Zinc strong upward trend

Minutes of the morning meeting of zinc in SMM on July 29th

Spot fundamentals

Shanghai: morning holder steady Shengshui quotation, market ordinary zinc brand transaction concentrated on the SMM net average price near the level, the market quotation morning for 2008 contracts up 80 yuan / ton, after a small number of holders raised the price of rising water to 85 yuan / ton; entered the second period, the market trading is insipid, the holder maintains the rising water quotation; The futures market fluctuated greatly, the lower reaches purchased at low prices yesterday, the market traded better, and the supply of zinc ingots in the market was relatively tight, and the overall rising water remained strong. (lidocaine)

Ningbo: zinc prices shot up and fell back yesterday. During the first trading session, Tiefeng and Xi Mineral reported a water increase of 90 yuan / ton for August contracts, Nanhua reported a water increase of 100 yuan / ton for August, and Kirin raised water for about 110-120 yuan / ton for August. Huize reported that around 150 yuan / ton for the August contract, the high zinc price market was light, and the downstream temporarily waited and saw. With the zinc price falling, the market activity increased slightly. Rigid demand procurement contributes to the main market transactions, the overall market transactions are mediocre. (bullish)

Guangdong: in the first trading session, futures prices soared, there were few purchases downstream, shipments increased when the shipments were high, spot rising water was under pressure, and Kirin, Mengzi, Huize and Tiefeng quoted a discount of 20 yuan / ton to flat for the Shanghai zinc contract in September. In the second trading session, price volatility fell, downstream bargain purchases increased, traders also actively inquired about discounts, and market trading improved compared with the first trading session. Kirin, Mengzi, Huize and Tiefeng offer a discount of 20-10 yuan / ton for the September contract of Shanghai zinc. (lidocaine)

Tianjin: yesterday, Shanghai zinc rose and dropped, and the spot market maintained a rising discount price, and the price was relatively uniform. The ordinary brand Bering News quoted a rise of 190 yuan per ton for the 08 contract, and Hongyi quoted a rise of 220 yuan per ton for the 08 contract. Chi Hong quoted a rise of 200 yuan per ton for the 08 contract, and the high-priced brand Zijin offered a rise of 260 yuan per ton for the August contract, while Baiyin quoted a rise of 180 yuan per ton for the 08 contract. The fourth Ring Road (delivered) quoted 150 yuan / ton of water for the 08 contract and 100 yuan / ton of zinc (including the out of the warehouse) for the 08 contract. Zinc prices shot up and fell back yesterday. In the first period of time, due to the shortage of goods, traders offered rising prices for shipments, but the deal was general. After entering the second period of time, after the disk price went down, the shipments turned good; downstream, the futures prices rose and fell, and after the price fell by a large range, the willingness of downstream enterprises to receive goods turned for the better. On the whole, yesterday's transaction was better than the day before yesterday. (lidocaine)

Today's prediction of zinc price: overnight Lun zinc recorded a positive column with a long shadow line, daily K center of gravity moved up, the lower 5 / 10 line to provide support, MACD index positive column expansion. Overnight LME inventory surged 14175 tons to 173000 tons, or 8.92%. Overnight lun zinc fluctuated greatly, showing a U-shaped reversal trend. Against the background of overseas epidemic fermentation and geopolitical risk intensification, market risk aversion increased, gold price rose sharply, zinc price fell under pressure, and then the Federal Reserve extended its loan program so that the market remained for loose monetary policy, boosting the strength of Nonferrous and driving Lunzhe up. Pay attention to macro guidance in the short term. Dayang column was recorded in Shanghai overnight, the daily K center of gravity further moved upward, the lower 10-day moving average provided support, the upper Bollinger Road was pressed, and the opening of KDJ index was expanded. Fundamentally, galvanizing supports the main consumption of zinc, downstream orders have improved, and orders for die-casting zinc alloys have increased in some countries with the resumption of overseas economies, superimposed demand expectations for post-disaster reconstruction, supporting the upside of zinc prices. however, supply-side incremental materials inhibit the upside of zinc in Shanghai.

Today's forecast: the price of lun zinc is expected to operate in the range of 2230-2280 US dollars per ton. The contract price of Shanghai Zinc 2009 is expected to run in the range of 18100-18600 yuan / ton, and domestic zinc is expected to rise by 120 yuan / ton.