Shanghai aluminum shock rise is more prudent.

SMM net news: internal and external trend: LME aluminum concussion rose on Monday, as of Beijing 1515 00Bing 3 months Lun aluminum reported 1703 US dollars / ton, a daily increase of 0.35%. Shanghai Aluminum's main 2009 contract rose in shock, with a daily maximum of 14290 yuan / ton and a minimum of 14125 yuan / ton, closing at 14220 yuan / ton, up 0.42% from the previous day's closing price. The trading volume was 67527 lots, down 6358 lots per day, and 99722 positions, an increase of 3359 lots per day. The base difference is 360 yuan / ton, and the price difference of Shanghai Aluminum from 2008 to 2009 is 220 yuan / ton.

Market focus: (1) euro zone manufacturing PMI recorded 51.1 in July, higher than expected, with a previous value of 47.4, back above the rise and fall line, the highest level in 25 months. (2) US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin said that the US $1 trillion relief bill will be introduced this week. (3) the approved import volume of the tenth batch of aluminum scrap in 2020 is 1110 tons, and a total of 694769 tons of waste aluminum import quota will be issued this year.

Spot analysis: July 27th SMM spot A00 aluminum quoted 14560-14600 yuan / ton, the average price is 14580 yuan / ton, up 40 yuan / ton per day. SMM reported that the supply of goods in the market today is still loose, and the enthusiasm of shippers is significantly higher than that of the previous two weeks. Middlemen take into account that the rising water has dropped, the receiving of goods is also more active, and the two sides are trading well. On the whole, there are more shippers than receivers. A large family received the goods normally today, and the purchase volume was no more than ten thousand tons. Downstream goods are mainly shipped on demand, and the willingness to replenish the goods is not high.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 98821 tons on Monday, a daily decrease of 1209 tons; on July 24, LME aluminum inventory was 1649275 tons, a daily increase of 8850 tons. In the week ending July 24th, the stock of aluminum in Shanghai in the previous period was 222498 tons, a weekly decrease of 10829 tons.

Main positions: Shanghai Aluminum 2009 contract top 20 long positions of 55830 hands, a daily increase of 1830 hands, short positions of 75095 hands, a daily increase of 2112 hands, clearance positions of 19265 hands, a daily increase of 282 hands, long positions increased, clearance increased.

Market research: July 27th Shanghai aluminum main 2009 shock rose. The worsening epidemic in the United States and the deterioration of Sino-US relations have led to heightened concerns about the economic outlook; at the same time, the expansion of profits from domestic electrolytic aluminum production has stimulated aluminum mills to speed up new commissioning and resumption of production; and the rising Shanghai-Lun ratio has led to the continuous expansion of the import profit window, stimulating overseas imports, and the pressure above aluminum prices has increased. However, the domestic downstream demand continues to perform well, the purchasing intention is still good, Shanghai aluminum inventory continues to decline, and the in-plant inventory continues to be eliminated, which has a strong support for aluminum prices. Spot, the supply of goods in the market is still loose, the enthusiasm of shippers has been significantly improved compared with the previous two weeks, middlemen take into account the decline in rising water, downstream mainly on demand. Technically, Shanghai aluminum main 2009 contract mainstream long positions are larger, pay attention to 14400 position resistance, it is expected that the short-term shock is on the strong side. In operation, it is suggested that the light warehouse can be long around 14180 yuan / ton, and the stop loss position is 14080 yuan / ton.

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