July 21 SMM internal aluminum morning meeting minutes plate: yesterday except aluminum, the basic metal inside and outside all turned red. Lun Aluminum closed at 1662.5 US dollars / ton on the 17th, down 0.03%, or 0.50 US dollars / ton. Shanghai Aluminum's main force, 2008, rose the same as in the previous cycle. The dollar index fell 0.19% to 95.795.
Macro aspect: 1) the real-time statistics of Johns Hopkins University in the United States show that as of around 8: 00 on July 21, Beijing time, there were more than 14.64 million confirmed cases and 608600 deaths worldwide. As of 17:33 eastern time, the number of new crown pneumonia cases in the United States had reached 3808104 and the number of deaths had reached 140828. (bearish) 2) the EU proposes 390 billion euros in the form of free allocations in the EU recovery Fund of 750 billion euros. 3) Fu Bingfeng, executive vice president of the China Automobile Association, said that if the market recovers well in the second half of the year, the decline in the auto market for the whole year may return to less than 10%. (Lido) 4) FTSE China A50 index futures opened higher after closing up 0.83% overnight and is now up 0.97%. (lidocaine)
Fundamentals: 1) July 20, SMM statistics domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory of 712000 tons, an increase of 4000 tons compared to last Thursday, the initial accumulation of inventory, Shanghai, tin and Guangdong region inventory is tired, Gongyi, Hangzhou and other places inventory continued to decline. (bearish) 2) Global primary aluminum production fell to 5.274 million tons in June and 5.448 million tons in May, according to data released by the International Aluminum Association (IAI) on Monday. China's primary aluminum production is expected to fall to 3.005 million tons in June and 3.105 million tons in May. Global primary aluminium production outside China was 2.119 million tonnes in June, down 74000 tonnes from May and 19000 tonnes from a year earlier. 3) Alumina: today's alumina market is also calm, traders in the north and southwest have low quotations, alumina plants are more cautious, the quotation is stable, but the market has not heard of large-scale transactions. (neutral) 4) waste aluminum: in terms of imported waste aluminum, the current overseas zorba (95 metal volume, 2% copper broken raw aluminum) Malaysia CIF price has risen to more than US $1000 / ton. After preliminary sorting, the processing fee is about US $100 / ton, which is still about 1500 yuan / ton lower than the domestic raw aluminum tax price. If imports are liberalized, domestic shocks are inevitable, and all parties remain on the sidelines for imported waste aluminum. (bullish)
Yesterday morning, the spot price of aluminum ingots in Wuxi was between 14500, 14,510 yuan / ton, in Shanghai, between 14490, 14500 yuan / ton, and the rising water was around 260 yuan / ton. There were many inquiries at the beginning of trading in the morning. With the heat of market trading gradually rising, the market price gradually became clear, because under the condition of high rising water, the shippers' enthusiasm for shipping increased obviously, the spot in market circulation was obviously looser than last week, and the circulation brands were more abundant than last week. In the later period, the prices of Shanghai and tin began to concentrate between 14470 won 14490 yuan / ton and 14490 won 14510 yuan / ton, while the rising water fell slightly in the later stage, concentrated between 220 muri 260 yuan / ton. A large family announced a small number of purchase plans yesterday, and the trading between traders and buyers is OK. Spot transactions this morning focused on rising water around 200 yuan / ton in the same month.
Conclusion: macroscopically, foreign countries are still in the stage of economic restart under the threat of the epidemic, and the domestic market maintains good expectations in the second half of the year. For the future trend of aluminum prices, the current low inventory, tight circulation of the fundamental support remains unchanged. SMM still maintains its recent view, and the trend of aluminum price is still strong in the short term in the future.
