SMM internal aluminum morning meeting minutes: yesterday's aluminum price correction, Lun aluminum closed at 1682.5 US dollars / ton, down 0.44%, up 7.50 US dollars / ton, Shanghai aluminum main 2008 contract fell 0.89%, down 130 yuan / ton, closed at 14450 yuan / ton. The dollar index fell 0.35% to 96.229.
Macro aspect: 1) the real-time statistics of Johns Hopkins University in the United States show that as of around 8: 00 on July 15, Beijing time, there were more than 13.25 million confirmed cases and 576800 deaths worldwide. (bearish) 2) the US budget deficit reached a record high in June as federal spending more than tripled year-on-year in response to the economic impact of the new crown epidemic. The budget deficit widened to $864.1 billion in June, reflecting a record $1.1 trillion in spending, much of which came from the pay protection scheme. (bullish) 3) Euro area ZEW economic climate index for July: 59.6; previous value: 58.6. (Lido) 4) China's dollar-denominated exports rose 0.5 per cent in June from a year earlier, with an estimate of-2.0 per cent. China's dollar-denominated imports rose 2.7 per cent in June from a year earlier, with an estimated-9.0 per cent. (lidocaine)
Fundamentals: 1) the Yunnan Green Aluminum Innovation Industrial Park of Yanshan Industrial Park in Yanshan County started construction in December last year. At present, the work of site leveling, water supply, power supply, road access and pipeline relocation is being carried out in an orderly manner. Its first phase of 1.08 million tons of electrolytic aluminum project is expected to be put into production in August this year. According to data from the General Administration of Customs on July 14, China exported 354000 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products in June 2020, down 30.0 percent from the same period last year and 29000 tons less than in May. From January to June this year, China exported 2.366 million tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products, down 20.6 percent from the same period last year. 3) Alumina: the substantial increase in the center of gravity of alumina in the short term still needs to be driven by trading, and the market price is still dominated by strong volatility. (lidocaine)
Yesterday, the spot price in Shanghai and Wuxi was between 14890 and 14920 yuan / ton, while the price in Wuxi was slightly higher. The price of the two places fell by more than 500 yuan / ton compared with the previous day, giving up more than half of the increase. The transaction price in Hangzhou was 14940 Mel / ton. In the morning, the shipper was active, but the quotation was high and the actual transaction was small. After 10: 00, the market was on the right track, and the price of the holder began to fall, and the enthusiasm for shipping was not reduced. On the whole, the transaction between traders was OK. The enthusiasm of receiving goods in the lower reaches yesterday was significantly higher than that of the previous day, and the price sensitivity was higher. With the sharp fall in aluminum prices, it was OK to receive goods under the influence of the mood of price rebound in the later period. However, a large family still did not carry out procurement plans in East China today, and as a whole, East China made a general deal yesterday. Afternoon aluminum horizontal trading is mainly, the price of the holder is between 14860 Mel 14880 yuan / ton, the rising water on the opposite side is around 30 yuan / ton, only a small amount of transactions are made among traders, and there are few downstream. This morning's spot transactions were concentrated near Pingshui of that month.
Summary: Shanghai aluminum prices have risen as a whole, and the Shanghai aluminum market has fluctuated greatly in the past two days. SMM believes that the main reasons are 3.1, the current capital market liquidity is active, macro sentiment is high. 2. fundamental electrolytic aluminum social inventory is at a low level and tight spot supply leads to strong support for aluminum prices, which continues the spot-driven futures logic. 3. Low inventory at the same time makes the futures market more sensitive, the recent volatility of aluminum prices is mainly to reduce positions, reflecting the lack of confidence between the long and short sides and the fierce game between the two sides. It is expected that the trend of aluminum prices in the short term is still strong and volatile.
