[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] the short-term aluminum price still has fundamental support for the month-on-month increase in electrolytic aluminum production in June.

SMM internal aluminum morning meeting minutes: yesterday, aluminum rose sharply in the inner and outer session. Lomalco closed at $1665 / ton yesterday, up 1.83%, or $30 / ton. Shanghai Aluminum's main 2008 contract rose 0.78%, up 110 yuan / ton, to close at 14160 yuan / ton. The dollar index fell 0.49 per cent to 96.483.

Macro aspect: 1) according to the real-time data of Johns Hopkins University in the United States, as of 08:50 on July 9, Beijing time, the global total of confirmed cases of new crown pneumonia exceeded 12 million cases, reaching 12007327 cases, and accumulated 548800 deaths. The number of confirmed cases of new crown pneumonia in the United States has exceeded 3 million, reaching 3009611. 2) on July 7, the State disaster reduction Commission and the Ministry of Emergency Management launched a national level IV emergency response to severe floods in Hubei and Anhui provinces, and sent two additional working groups to the hardest-hit areas to inspect the disaster situation on the spot. to guide and assist localities in disaster relief and other relief work. (Lido) 3) according to the website of the Ministry of Finance on the 8th, 286.7 billion yuan of local government bonds were issued nationwide in June. Of this total, 169.1 billion yuan was issued for general bonds and 117.6 billion yuan for special bonds; according to the purpose, 84.5 billion yuan of new bonds and 202.2 billion yuan of refinancing bonds were issued. From January to June, 3.4864 trillion yuan of local government bonds were issued nationwide. Of this total, 1.1139 trillion yuan was issued for general bonds and 2.3725 trillion yuan for special bonds; according to the purpose, 2.7869 trillion yuan of new bonds and 699.5 billion yuan of refinancing bonds were issued. (neutral)

Fundamentals: 1) SMM alumina production data release: in June (30 days), China produced 5.709 million tons of alumina, including 5.499 million tons of metallurgical grade alumina and 183000 tons of metallurgical grade daily output, an increase of 1.82% from the previous month and a decrease of 4.57% from the same period last year. In the first half of the year, China's cumulative metallurgical grade alumina output was 32.641 million tons, 7.6% lower than the same period last 2) SMM electrolytic aluminum production data released: China's electrolytic aluminum output in June 2020 (30 days) was 3.004 million tons, an increase of 2.42% over the same period last year. By the end of June, the national operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 36.76 million tons / year, the completed capacity was 41.23 million tons / year, and the operating rate of national electrolytic aluminum enterprises was 89 percent. The overall operating rate was 0.3 percent higher than that at the end of May 2020. By the end of June, the operating capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum has increased by 180000 tons / year compared with the end of May. 3) the passenger car federation said that retail sales in the passenger car market reached 1.654 million units in June, an increase of 2.9% over the previous month, achieving a continuous four-month-on-month retail growth. (lidocaine)

Yesterday morning, the spot price in Shanghai was between 14320 and 14350 yuan / ton, and the price in Wuxi was between 14330 and 14350 yuan / ton, which was nearly 100 yuan lower than that of the previous day, and the rising water was concentrated in the price of 30 yuan / ton. In the morning, the market showed a tight supply of goods, a large number of shippers, but fewer shippers and a firm quotation, as the spot in market circulation was less, and the actual transaction was general. With the sharp rise in aluminum after 10: 30, the price quoted by the holders in the East China market began to be concentrated around 14420 yuan / ton, and the rising water to the plate was concentrated at 20 yuan / ton, but the aluminum futures rose too fast, although the enthusiasm of the middleman for receiving goods did not decrease. However, the holder began to hesitate, the shipment converged, and the transaction in the second stage of the transaction was very few. Yesterday, the downstream mainly received goods on demand, and the signs of stock preparation were not obvious. The overall transaction in East China is poor, and the supply of goods is in a tight state. Aluminum remained high and fluctuating in the afternoon. The price of the holder in Shanghai was around 14410 yuan / ton, the price of water on the disk was about 20 yuan / ton, the price of individual holders in Wuxi was around 14470 yuan / ton, and the price of water on the disk was about 70 yuan / ton. only a small number of transactions between traders, few downstream. This morning, spot transactions were concentrated around 20 yuan / ton of rising water for that month.

Summary: from a macro point of view, the domestic macro-control has achieved remarkable results, the economy has slowly recovered, and the stock index futures market is hot. Fundamentals, yesterday's SMM production data fresh out, the current electrolytic aluminum profits, new capacity, more positive resumption of production, 6 electrolytic aluminum production increased year-on-year, in view of the previous aluminum processing downstream in July and August demand weakening judgment, aluminum ingot social inventory is likely to accumulate in the near future, aluminum prices may appear high horizontal shock state, the uplink space is limited. However, the current social inventory warehouse receipts are still low, the spot supply is tight, and aluminum prices are still strongly supported in the short term.