Minutes of SMM Internal Zinc Morning meeting on July 1st
Spot fundamentals
Shanghai: the spot price is still relatively high, the morning market trading is light, the holder is active in shipping, the transaction of the ordinary zinc brand in the market is concentrated on the average price discount of 50.010 yuan / ton to the SMM net, the market quotation is 90 yuan / ton on the 2007 contract in the morning, and the latter part of the consignors lower the water price to 80,000RMB / ton; entering the second period of time, the market quotation is relatively stable, and the holder maintains the rising water quotation to 80,000RMB / ton for the 2007 contract. The spot price is high, the downstream high-price purchase intention is poor, the high price of the holder is mainly shipping, and the spot rising water remains relatively stable. (bullish)
Ningbo: zinc prices rose yesterday to fill the pre-holiday decline, traders actively shipped, the first time in the morning Tiefeng reported in the vicinity of 100 yuan / ton for the July contract, the West Mining News rose 90 yuan / ton for the July contract, Yunxi News rose 100 yuan / ton for the July contract, a small amount of water for the July contract rose 130 yuan / ton, a small amount of Kirin depressed the price, and quoted a water rise of 90 yuan / ton for the July contract. However, due to the rise in zinc prices, the willingness of downstream enterprises to buy is obviously frustrated. Entering the second trading session, there was almost no significant change in the rising water. Overall, zinc prices rose yesterday, downstream enterprises are mainly wait-and-see, the market trading situation is significantly worse than the day before yesterday. (bullish)
Guangdong: in the first trading session, the futures price difference between the current month and the next month narrowed slightly, and the market was still relatively high in the initial trial quotation stage, but the futures price was higher, the downstream procurement demand was insufficient, and the late market began to adjust the price and ship the goods, mainly among traders. Kirin, Mengzi, Huize and Danxia quoted prices for the Shanghai zinc contract for August, which rose 40 cents / ton, and Tiefeng rose 3040 yuan / ton. The second trading session, futures prices are still high volatility, downstream demand is still weak, coupled with capital restrictions at the end of the month, the overall market turnover is general, some holders continue to reduce prices for shipments. Kirin, Mengzi, Blue Zinc quotation for Shanghai zinc August contract rose 35 murals 50 yuan / ton, Tiefeng Shengshui 20Mel 30 yuan / ton. (bullish)
Tianjin: yesterday, Shanghai Zinc rebounded upwards, and the spot market slightly lowered the discount quotation, which was relatively uniform. The ordinary brand Bering News quoted a rise of 130 yuan per ton for the 07 contract, and Hongyi quoted a rise of 140 yuan per ton for the 07 contract. Chi Hong quoted a rise of 120 yuan per ton for the 07 contract, and the high-priced brand Zijin quoted a rise of 150 yuan per ton for the July contract, while Baiyin quoted a rise of 160 yuan per ton for the 07 contract. Yunxi (exempt warehouse) quoted 70 yuan / ton for 07 contract, Ximang (delivered) 80 yuan / ton for 07 contract, KZ/YP quoted 80 yuan / ton for 07 contract, and Harbin zinc (including depot) quoted 60 yuan / ton for 07 contract. Zinc prices rebounded upward yesterday, as the first half of the year entered the end, some refineries and traders shipped to clear inventory, superimposed more goods in Tianjin, the overall rising water again down, of which Zijin low price quoted to 70.110 yuan / ton pre-sale tomorrow price; downstream, the spot price rose yesterday, downstream enterprises wait and see mainly, the willingness to receive goods has weakened. On the whole, the deal was mediocre yesterday. (bullish)
Yesterday's forecast zinc price: overnight Lun Zinc received a barefoot pubic column, falling below the 5 / 10 line, KDJ opening down expansion. Overnight LME inventory decreased by 275t to 122575 t, or 0.22%. The fermentation of overseas epidemic situation is a drag on the recovery of consumption, the support of superimposed fundamentals is weak, the pessimism of the market is getting stronger, and the performance of Lun Zinc is weak overnight, but overseas economic stimulus policies are constantly expected to limit the downward trend of Lun Zinc. Overnight Shanghai zinc received a negative column, the lower 20th line to provide support, MACD red column narrowed. Driven by the weakness of the outer disk, Shanghai zinc is also weak, under the background of weaker marginal consumption, downstream buying is weak, fundamental support is weak, but the macro positive will also provide support for zinc prices. Pay attention to the shipping situation of overseas mines in the near future.
Yesterday, it is estimated that the price of lun zinc is expected to operate in the 2060 US dollars / ton area in 2010. It is expected that the contract price of Shanghai Zinc 2008 will run in the range of 16500 Mel 17000 yuan / ton, and it is expected that domestic zinc will drop 100 yuan / ton.
