Demand spirit, wind and rain at the same time!
(8 June)
< 1 > in terms of epidemic situation.
Domestic epidemic situation: confirmed / imported cases / asymptomatic / severe / 124Universe 1780,2010.Results: 1.
The new crown vaccine and special immunoglobulin of Academician Chen Wei are expected to be put into production in Guizhou. On June 6, the phase I safety tolerance and pharmacodynamic clinical trial of intravenous injection of anthrax human immunoglobulin was officially launched in the affiliated Hospital of Guizhou Medical University. Chen Wei said that the launch of the project is of great significance to China's prevention of terrorism, biological and biological attacks and public health emergencies.
Zhong Nanshan: natural immunity requires 60% of the people in a country to be infected, which will probably cause 300 to 40 million deaths. So the solution still depends on large-scale vaccination. The new crown vaccine can be used as an emergency as early as this autumn or the end of this year. There are already six vaccines in clinical trials in mainland China.
Zhang Wenhong: on June 9, he will resume the general expert clinic in Huashan Hospital with a registration fee of 50 yuan. "my visit indicates Shanghai's confidence in the epidemic. If I don't have confidence in the control of the epidemic, I will stay in the public health center all day and never come back."
Overseas epidemic situation: new / confirmed cumulative cases / deaths / 11jie8983 / > 7.0213 million / 40Pol 1716.
Us Empire priority: new / confirmed cumulative cases / deaths / 21971 / > 200,74.49 million / 11pr 2469.
Brazil ranks second in the world in terms of serious countries and regions.
Brazil: > 691900 / 27049 gray 3pm 7372.
Russia: > 476600 / 8984Comp5971.
UK: > 286100 / 1326 Compact 4jue 0542.
India: > 258000 / 10607 Compact 7207.
Peru: > 196500 / 4358Comp5465.
Baccartan: > 10.36 pound 4960 pound 2067.
Iran: > 171700 / 2364 Compact 8281.
Saudi Arabia: > 101900 / 3045amp 712.
Mexico: > 117000 / 3593 Compact 13699.
Chile: > 134100 / 2190.
Canada: > 95600 / 267Comp7800.
Bachstein: > 85200 / 40650.1770.
Bangladesh: > 65700 / 2743Universe 888.
< 2 > weekend-to-date playback:
1. Spot market prices rebounded overall. East China Hangzhou Shagang brand again asked 3700 yuan / ton, Shanghai market rose 10 yuan 20 yuan / ton, Fuzhou rose 30 yuan / ton, Guangzhou rain in South China mainly (Wangang fell 20 yuan / ton), Wuhan in central China rose 20 yuan / ton, Tangshan led the increase, Beijing rose 10 yuan / ton.
Volume: strong recovery.
Market mentality: low positive, high cautious.
The billet in Tangshan area went up to 3330 yuan / ton.
Raw material end:
Scrap price is stable
Coke prices, the fourth round of increase basically landed.
The price of coking coal is stable.
For more information on the spot market price of iron ore port, see SMM Nonferrous net [Daily Review of Iron Ore Market]
This morning even iron jump high open after the high concussion, the port spot market morning quotation raised about 35 murals 40 yuan / ton. In terms of steel mills, due to excessive price increases, most of them are mainly cautious and wait-and-see, and the purchasing enthusiasm is low. Traders, today's strong willingness to ship, due to the strong operation of the disk, basically adopt a single negotiation, today's overall transaction is not good. The turnover of PB powder in Shandong area was about 795 murals 800 yuan / ton, an increase of about 30,000,000 yuan / ton compared with last Friday. Due to the slight expansion of the price difference between low and medium-sized goods in the port, steel mills are more active in making inquiries about low-quality goods. In addition, China imported 87.026 million tons of iron ore in May, up 3.276 million tons from a year earlier and down 8.686 million tons from a month earlier, according to customs data. Under the premise that the domestic blast furnace operating rate remains high and the short-term demand side does not change much, the ore price may fluctuate at a high level under the expected contraction of the supply side. [SMM Steel]
2. Futures:
RB2010 main contract: high concussion.
The day fluctuated strongly between 3586 and 3666, closing at 3616.
Note: what does an organization mean to cast a net to find food? Ha.
HC2010 main contract:
The day fluctuated strongly between 3501 and 3573, closing at 3542.
Iron ore i2009 main contract:
The incense in the sky penetrates Changan, and the city is full of gold armour.
Run between 748 and 798 during the day, closing at 783.
Coke J2009 main contract: continue finishing.
The day fluctuated at a high level between 1938 and 1988.5, closing at 1958.
Coking coal JM2009 main contract:
The day fluctuated strongly between 1163 and 1197.5, closing at 1192.5.
< 3 > Forecast for tomorrow:
1. Spot: strong operation.
2. Futures:
RB2010 main contract: concussion between 3600 and 3700.
HC2010 main contract: concussion between 3510 and 3610.
I2009 main contract: concussion between 770 and 820.
J2009 main contract: concussion between 1910 and 2010.
JM2009 main contract: concussion between 1170 and 1200.
3. Spot operation tips: last week, the second half of the week back to increase inventory. Practitioners sell high and suck low rolling operation to stabilize inventory. Those who do not practice the delayed realization can replenish the inventory by an appropriate amount, especially in the rainy areas.
4. Futures.
Thread, hot coil: in the early stage, it is suitable for the rolling operation of high selling and low suction in the new range.
Iron ore: mainly traded in the range, falling below 760 stop loss.
Coke: more volume in the range, falling below 1900 stop loss.
Coking coal: wait and see, chicken rib market, more trading in the range of activists.
RB2010 main contract: support level 3570, pressure level 3680.
HC2010 main contract: support 3500, pressure 3600.
I2009 main contract: support level 760, pressure level 800.
J2009 main contract: support level 1910, pressure level 2040.
JM2005 main contract: support level 1140, pressure level 1200.
< 4 > Information and heart words.
1. In view of the current situation of flood and drought disaster prevention in the Yangtze River Basin and according to the relevant provisions of the Yangtze River Basin flood and drought disaster prevention plan, the Yangtze River Water Conservancy Commission decided to launch level IV emergency response for flood and drought disaster prevention in the Yangtze River from 20:00 on June 5. This is also the first time that the emergency response to flood and drought prevention on the Yangtze River has been launched this year.
2. Hu Xijin: I don't know. How did you become president of the United States?
President Trump told the media for two days in a row that he did not understand why the new crown virus did not spread to other parts of China outside Wuhan, but to the United States and Europe. What he means is that China did it on purpose.
The Xinguan epidemic broke out in Wuhan, whether the source is Wuhan or not. But why is it that more than 100,000 people have died in the United States while other parts of China are "fine"? it is not clear how to become president. With such confusion, how many people have to die in the United States?
At one point, all provinces and regions in China except Hubei entered the first-level prevention and control response, and Zhejiang and other provinces adopted more stringent prevention and control measures than New York State when there were only a few hundred cases. China respects the advice of scientists and takes big steps decisively to bring prevention and control to the forefront of the 14-day incubation period of the virus, rather than hobbling after the virus as the United States does. Therefore, only a few days after China realized the serious harm of the virus, Wuhan entered the "city closure", and then we used only one virus incubation period to achieve the inflection point of the number of cases in the national battlefield outside Hubei from rising to falling.
Because American political elites are so ignorant of science and refuse to seek truth from facts, Lao Hu highly suspects that the recovery of American jobs and the soaring stock market are building new buildings on the beach. When the autumn and winter games come again, the virus does not talk about politics, nor does it have the concept of a country. Lao Hu can only wish every country good luck.
3. [Vale announced the suspension of operations in the Itabila comprehensive mining area and informed of the support provided to combat the Xinguan pneumonia epidemic]
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, June 6, 2020-Vale has informed that on June 5, 2020, Vale took the necessary measures to suspend operations in the (Itabira) integrated mining area of Itabila, which consists of Conceic?a?o and Caue?. And three mining areas of Periquito, this measure is in line with the ruling of the third District Labor Court, which restores the effect of the injunction issued by the Minas Gerais State Labor Inspectorate. The ruling will last until the merits of the action are judged or the new crown virus prevention and control measures defined by labor inspectors are implemented. On June 6, 2020, the third District Labor Court also decided to impose a fine of 500,000 reais per day on the company. Vale informed that in order to protect the health of workers, the suspension of production activities in the above-mentioned mining area followed all technical standards and safety regulations.
Vale's directed production of iron ore powder in 2020 is between 310 million and 330 million tons, which takes into account the possible reduction of 15 million tons affected by the fight against the new crown virus. Taking into account: (1) the expected monthly production of 2.7 million tons in the Itabila integrated mining area in the coming months; (2) the potential production loss of 15 million tons associated with the new crown virus in 2020 has been expected, and there is no need to modify the guided production at present. However, Vale informed that there may be a temporary shortage of pellets in Brazil's domestic market because the mine supplies pellet concentrate to the pellet plant in the Tubarang integrated industrial zone during the temporary suspension of operations at the Itabilla complex. [SMM Steel]
4. Central Meteorological Observatory: issue yellow warning of rainstorm. Heavy to torrential rain is expected in Guizhou, Hunan, Jiangxi, Fujian, Guangxi, Guangdong and other areas from June 7 to 8. The State General Administration of Flood Control launched the level IV emergency response of flood control at 16:00 on June 7, and sent a working group to Guangxi to guide the flood control work.
5. Affected by the news that Vale suspended operations in the Itabila mining area over the weekend, the bloody stones went wild in early trading, reaching a maximum of 798 and closing above 780. The author's forward-looking logic: the first small stage, cost-driven steel price rebound in cash …. No, no. The outbreak in Brazil continues, and although Vale is confident that its production will remain unchanged from 3.1 to 330 million tons in 2020, the market does not necessarily agree, especially President Bosonaro, like Trump, who is worried about the impact of supply. The main road is as simple as possible, if the government and
The common people do not practice to fight the epidemic with one heart and one mind, and all the empty "slogans" are the hotbed of the epidemic monarch instead. Judging from the current situation in Brazil, the impact on iron ore production is gradually increasing with certainty. The author might as well follow this condition to deduce that if iron ore supply affects deep ploughing, domestic long-process steel enterprises will inevitably derive three problems: first, iron ore prices have risen sharply to drown tons of steel profits, costs have moved up sharply, and it is an inevitable option to promote a rebound in steel prices. Second, the output of steel mills has been passively reduced, and new factors have been added to improve the relationship between steel supply and demand, further contributing to the reversal of steel prices. Third, steel mills "bully soft (coke) afraid of hard (iron ore)" inertia effect to strengthen the superposition due to passive production reduction of coke demand weakening, coke opened the fifth round to increase more than 100 wars. In short, the upward movement of costs is an indisputable reality.
In addition, the steel demand side, Yangcheng and other places pour rain, the short-term demand for beauty girls rest, not to mention today's Jiangnan pouring rain, try to ask the shutter people, the most love after the sunny price! Therefore, there is a high probability that the rebar rebound time dimension will continue until the first and middle of July.
Rhythm, trend logic and point of view remain unchanged: see Weekly Review and June Prospect for details! I won't repeat it.
