(under review) [SMM analysis] Indonesia's refined tin export falls sharply in April. The supply and demand of Indonesia's tin market may become the main pattern in the future.

SMM5, March 8: it is reported that Indonesia exported 4220.59 tons of refined tin in April, down 28 percent from 5868.32 tons in the same period last year and 7 percent from 4539.19 tons in March, according to figures released by the Indonesian Ministry of Trade on Friday. Indonesia is the world's largest exporter of refined tin.

(Indonesia refined tin export)

Affected by the epidemic, so far, Tianma, Alfamin, Malaysia smelting Group, Peru Minsu, AfriTin Mining of Namibia, Minera ã o Taboca, subsidiary of Minsur in Brazil, and Indonesian tin miner PT Timah have announced temporary production cuts or suspensions. The market is worried about the tightening of the supply side, the tin ore end raw material manufacturers quote and ship less, and the smelter raw material supply is facing a tight situation, which also contributed to the rise in tin prices in April. In terms of inventory, Lunn tin inventory has continued to decline since April.

Although the supply side continues to be tight, the demand side is also declining. On April 8, the World Trade Organization (WTO) annual Global Trade data and Outlook report said that given the uncertainty of the economic impact of the epidemic, the volume of trade in almost all regions of the world will decline in double digits, and global trade may shrink by 13% to 32% this year, with exports in North America and Asia to be the hardest hit. In terms of the industry, trade in the electronics and car manufacturing industries will shrink even more. Due to the spread of the epidemic in the global impact of the electronic industry chain, so that it is in a state of semi-stagnation, and then reduce the demand for tin ingots. The weak pattern of demand side and supply side affected by the epidemic is still the main theme at present.

This week Shanghai tin main force 2007 contract overall maintains the high concussion collation situation, the center of gravity has risen. At the beginning of the May Day holiday, bulls increased positions as the main companion with some short positions and a small number of bulls leaving the market, and the one-day trend for two consecutive trading days showed the relative stability of the center of gravity. On Friday, the bulls increased their positions again, the center of gravity of Shanghai tin moved up obviously, and the Shanghai tin 2007 contract closed at 130180 yuan / ton on Friday. During the week, it rose 2790 yuan / ton, or 2.19%, with a trading volume of 115000 hands and a position of 32117 hands, an increase of 3704 hands. This week Shanghai tin shows a positive line, the top pressure on the 20-day moving average, the bottom by the 60-day moving average support. In terms of indicators, although the daily line level MACD index showed a top deviation situation, but its fast and slow line above the zero axis showed a good situation, and the KDJ support high position into a golden fork; K line from the Brin belt on the track there is a small amount of space. Weekly level, indicators are still good, K line has not yet been from the lower track to the Brin belt in the middle of the track.

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