[2020.4.15 Nickel Internal Morning meeting Summary] domestic high-nickel pig iron will continue to gradually go to the warehouse to increase the price of stainless steel depends on downstream demand

At the macro level, the (IMF) expects the global economy to experience its worst recession since the Great Depression, and could be even worse if the virus lingers or makes a comeback. It estimates that global GDP will shrink by 3 per cent this year and that global trade in goods and services is likely to fall by 11 per cent. The crisis also "poses a very serious threat to the global financial system," Trump said. Trump said he would suspend US funding for the World Health Organization because of his dereliction of duty in the sharing of information on the new crown. [bearish] although major oil-producing countries such as Saudi Arabia have agreed to reduce oil production again from May, until then, oil production will remain open. Saudi crude oil exports have been 9.3 million barrels a day so far this month, and crude oil inventory growth will continue for at least a few more weeks as the epidemic stabilizes and Europe begins to work out plans to resume production. Austria and Denmark will open some schools and shops this week. German Chancellor Angela Merkel will discuss the plan with state governors on Wednesday. The European Commission has also drawn up a plan to coordinate national measures [Lido] the joint prevention and control mechanism of the State Council of China: three new crown vaccines have been approved for clinical trials, and the evaluation criteria should not be reduced during the evaluation process. The State Council: China will step up the transformation of old urban areas, issue local debts of a certain scale in advance, and strengthen financial support for the real economy, especially for small and medium-sized enterprises.

Nickel spot: April 14 SMM1 electrolytic nickel quoted 96250-98150 yuan / ton, the average price fell 550 yuan / ton compared with yesterday. Russia Nickel to Shanghai Nickel 05 contract flat to 50 yuan / ton, Jinchuan Nickel to Shanghai Nickel 2005 contract in the rising water 1400-1500 yuan / ton. Shanghai nickel wide shock adjustment, early market prices lower and near delivery, mainstream traders have few discount quotes for Russian nickel, traders have some circulation on bargains, downstream take a small amount of goods on demand, the market nickel price fluctuates greatly in the afternoon, the transaction situation of Russian nickel weakens, and the overall transaction situation is slightly better than on Monday. Jinchuan nickel, early market water 1400 yuan / ton, or water 1500 yuan / ton have a small number of transactions, the degree of demand recovery is limited; Jinchuan company Shanghai continues to have goods for sale, ex-factory price 98000 yuan / ton. In the afternoon, the market nickel price rose back to 97000 yuan / ton, stimulating Jinchuan long Association customers to actively pick up the goods, manufacturers are expected to ship at least 200-300 tons, it is expected that today there may be a low price source quotation, Jinchuan rising water is expected to fall back. Nickel beans, the Shanghai Nickel 2005 contract reported 600 yuan / ton, the same as yesterday. [neutral]

Nickel pig iron: the price of SMM high nickel pig iron was quoted today at 870-890 yuan / nickel point (including ex-factory tax), which was flat from the previous trading day. A stainless steel factory in East China today has a high nickel pig iron inquiry price of 920 yuan / nickel point (including tax). According to market understanding, the price has reached a transaction of several thousand tons, which is 10 yuan / nickel point higher than the inquiry price of the factory last week. Nickel-iron price rising trend is obvious, nickel price, stainless steel price correction led to nickel-iron price rise, iron plant costs are still hanging upside down, but the willingness to ship is significantly stronger than in the previous period, high-nickel pig iron gradually went to the warehouse from April. [Lido]

Stainless steel: on April 14, the price of 304 cold and hot rolling in Wuxi area was still raised slightly. The average price of private cold rolling was increased by 100 yuan / ton to 12400-12600 yuan / ton; hot rolling was increased by 200 yuan / ton to 12000-12200 yuan / ton; 3042B state-owned trimming roll price was quoted at 1290013300 yuan / ton, flat yesterday. In the past two days, the market price of 304 stainless steel rose slightly, mainly due to the increase in the new opening price after the closure of the steel plant, and the superimposed futures contract price is still a strong trend. some traders said that some businesses have little existing inventory, but some orders have been signed out, and the price has been raised, so the current order receiving situation is still OK, but whether the subsequent price strengthening state can continue depends on the downstream demand situation. A short-term price adjustment at present or in a lower position. For 10:30 SHFE SS2006 contract price 12590 yuan / ton, Wuxi stainless steel spot rising water-20-180 yuan / ton. (spot trimming = rough edges + 170 yuan / ton) [Lido]

On the inventory side, Lunni stocks on 14 April were 229038 tons, 24 tons less than on 13 April.

Nickel price judgment: in terms of fundamentals, the reduction in production of nickel mines in the Philippines is more clear on the reduction of supply, and the price of nickel pig iron has become stronger. However, SMM believes that the price of nickel pig iron and ferrochromium is strong, will aggravate the cost pressure of stainless steel plant in April, stainless steel due to inventory pressure price is difficult to improve, the cost end price rise will aggravate the loss, April and later period still do not rule out the possibility of stainless steel production contusion demand, so the technical rebound repair of nickel price, mainly depends on the macro repair and the high decline of the global epidemic. SMM predicts that after breaking through the 20 antenna, Shanghai Nickel may have some upward space to take advantage of the macro recovery, 93000-100000 yuan / ton, and the top of the Lunni K column is facing the middle rail pressure of the Boll line, 11300-12000 US dollars / ton.