[October 29 SMM lead internal morning meeting record] reduced lead does not follow the rise and fall of regenerated lead paste may be narrowed

Summary of lead morning meeting:

Macro:

It is reported that the US president said that the United States in the signing of some Sino-US economic and trade agreements faster than planned, the resulting optimism boosted U. S. stocks to record highs, U. S. Treasuries and yen and other safe haven assets fell;

Both imports and exports of goods fell to their lowest level in more than a year in September, the latest sign that President Donald Trump's tariffs are hitting the US economy. The merchandise trade deficit narrowed unexpectedly in September as imports fell even more sharply.

The pound strengthened as the prime minister accepted the EU decision to postpone Brexit until January 31, eliminating the risk of a no-deal Brexit on Thursday.

China faces 250 billion yuan in reverse repo funds due today, with 10-year bond yields hitting a five-month high, with concerns about whether the central bank will inject more capital to rescue the downturn, and markets are looking forward to its renewed use of targeted medium-term lending facilities for (TMLF).

Fundamentals:

Shanghai lead shock consolidation, Holder quotation with the market, the price discount is basically the same as last week, among them, the Shanghai market Jinsha lead on the 1911 contract discount 20-10 yuan / ton quotation, the south, Ambrose lead on the 1911 contract discount 30-20 yuan / ton quotation, white goods can be discounted 50-40 yuan / ton, the primary lead refinery is mainly long single, some loose orders are quoted to the SMM1# lead average price discount 100 yuan / ton; In the aspect of recycled lead, due to the meagre profit of reduced lead smelting, the price gradually shows signs of rising and falling, and affected by the price of reduced lead, the discount of recycled refined lead has not been further expanded; in addition, the ratio of lead to Shanghai and Lun has narrowed recently, the export window of lead ingot is about to open, and the follow-up needs to continue to pay attention to its trend.

Lead price:

Shanghai lead revolves around the platform shock movement, recently pays attention to the low 16600 yuan first line support strength; Lun lead still maintains the strong trend, has not seen the high level to decline the sign temporarily, waits for the domestic lead export profit to open, as well as the inventory accumulates, perhaps the overseas strong structure will end;

SMM1# lead prices are expected to be flat to 25 yuan per ton today.