[2019.10.8 minutes of Zinc Internal Morning meeting] the macro factors of the weak concussion of Zinc during the holiday period need to be paid attention to this week.

SMM October 8 Zinc Morning meeting: weak concussion of Zinc during the Holiday week Macro factors need to be paid attention to

Zinc morning meeting: macroscopically: during the National Day holiday, the United States released a series of economic data, with mixed results. In September, ISM manufacturing PMI in the United States hit a new low of 47.8 in nearly a decade, non-manufacturing PMI hit a new low of 52.6 in nearly three years, and non-farm employment data in September were slightly lower than expected at 136000. The unemployment rate hit a new low of 3.5% in 50 years. According to CME "Fed Watch" analysis, the probability that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 1.50-1.75 per cent in October is 78 per cent. Protests in Hong Kong have escalated, with protesters burning and destroying stations and banks and resisting the government's ban on masking to quell the situation. Manufacturing activity shrank for the fifth month in a row in September, the latest in a series of depressed economic data, according to China's official purchasing managers' index, (PMI), released last Monday. The (WTO) cut its forecast for global trade growth by more than half this year and now expects global merchandise trade to grow 1.2 per cent this year, up from 2.6 per cent in April. it also said further tariffs and retaliation, an economic slowdown and a disorderly Brexit could make trade worse. This week's focus will be on economic and trade talks between the two trade leaders, attended by Chinese Vice Premier Liu he, US Trade Representative Lightheitzer and Treasury Secretary Nooqin, which are scheduled to begin on Thursday.

Fundamentals: spot Review last Monday: spot transactions in the three places are relatively light on the last trading day before the festival

Shanghai: today's Shanghai spot market quotation is basically stable, spot rising water quotation to domestic 1910 liters of water about 110 yuan / ton or SMM net price is mainly flat. On the last trading day before the festival, most of the market traders were mainly exploratory quotations, and there were few transactions between the actual traders. However, from some of the downstream traders understand that as of today, downstream buying is still relatively strong. Overall, today's trade market is lighter, but in fact downstream transactions are better.

Guangdong: the last trading day before the festival, the overall trading atmosphere is relatively light. In the morning, the market quotation is concentrated in the average price flat to rising water about 10 yuan / ton, the market transaction atmosphere is relatively dull; entering the second trading period, the market quotation is concentrated in the 11 contract discount 40-50 yuan / ton, part of the downstream still has reserve demand, contribute a small amount of transactions, however, a small number of bulk orders between traders, the volume of transactions is less. Overall, the market trading atmosphere on the last trading day before the festival was very light, and the transaction situation was significantly cooler than on Friday.

Tianjin: refinery shipments are normal today. In the market, a few days ago, the release of downstream pre-festival storage demand has led to a tightening of the already tight supply of goods. In the morning, the quotation for the supply of high-priced brands is concentrated in the vicinity of 290 yuan / ton for 10 contracts, and that for ordinary brands is about 220-230 yuan / ton for 10 contracts. Disk slightly upward, tight supply support to maintain a strong rising water, traders before the festival shipment is basically completed, downstream is also basically completed storage, supply and demand two weak situation, today's trading atmosphere is relatively cold. On the whole, the deal has faded today.

Inventory: as of September 30, the social inventory of zinc in the three places was 3100 tons lower than that of September 27, and 13900 tons to 135900 tons from September 23. Pre-festival stock factors continue to affect, Shanghai and Guangdong inventory have varying degrees of decline, Tianjin area out of the warehouse situation is OK, but before the festival concentrated goods slightly increased to offset the decline in Tianjin area. On the whole, the stock is in good condition before the National Day holiday this year.

Zinc prices: zinc closed yesterday, the overall pressure on Brin Road track operation, last week released the main manufacturing data in the United States, China and Europe showed a downward trend to exacerbate market concerns about the economic slowdown, Lun Zinc may be difficult to get action energy. Shanghai zinc resumed operation today, affected by the weakening of the outer plate during the National Day, Shanghai zinc or low open operation within the day, the return of superimposed long vacation, the expectation of an increase in market liquidity may put pressure on Shanghai zinc.

Today is expected: Lun zinc or range is expected to run at 2270-2320 US dollars / ton, Shanghai zinc main force 1911 contract or run at 18500-19000 yuan / ton. Domestic zinc fell 40 yuan per ton.

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