[2019.7.31 minutes of nickel internal morning meeting] tightening of nickel spot tradable sources pay close attention to the progress of Sino-US trade negotiations

Macroscopically, US personal spending rose 0.3 per cent in June from a month earlier, down from 0.4 per cent. The US PCE price index rose 1.4 per cent in June from a year earlier, down from 1.5 per cent; US consumer spending and prices rose moderately in June, indicating slowing economic growth and moderate inflation, and the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates this week for the first time in 10 years; the Politburo of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting to analyze and study the current economic situation and deploy economic work in the second half of the year: it is necessary to implement a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy. We should make greater efforts to improve fiscal policy and continue to implement the policy of reducing taxes and fees. Monetary policy should be tight and moderate, and liquidity should be kept reasonably abundant.

Nickel spot: July 30 SMM 1 # electrolytic nickel 111700 to 113900 yuan / ton. Russian nickel than Shanghai nickel 1908 discount 150-discount 100 yuan / ton range, slightly narrowed than yesterday. Jinchuan nickel than Shanghai nickel 1908 contract generally reported a water rise of 2000 yuan / ton, an increase from yesterday. Some traders have reported a water increase of 1800 yuan per ton, but the quantity is limited. Early trading hours, nickel prices around 111800 yuan / ton strong finishing, continued last night's rally, prices higher led to the existing light goods, cautious procurement, and traders due to low prices are not easy to receive, transactions are also light. In the second trading session, nickel prices continued to rush to around 112700 tons, spot trading continued in the morning mood, wait-and-see. In the near future, Russian nickel and Jinchuan nickel can be circulated to tighten the source of goods, resulting in a strong willingness of the holder to lift the water.

Stainless steel: the guiding price of stainless steel factory in Wuxi area is the same as yesterday, and the market quotation is generally stable. 304 / 2B rough edge roll price is 14900 to 15000 yuan / ton, 304 / NO.1 volume price is 14100 to 14300 yuan / ton. Some traders said that at present, stainless steel prices do not fluctuate much, downstream terminal manufacturers purchase on demand, some manufacturers believe that stainless steel prices still have a downward trend.

Inventory: 144000 tons of nickel on July 30, the same as on July 29.

Nickel price judgment: focus on the progress of the Sino-US trade negotiations today, alert to the adverse progress caused by the downside risks. In terms of funds, the bulls have not yet left the market. In the absence of significant changes in fundamentals, nickel prices continue to be affected by capital sentiment in the near future, and the dollar weakened after the Fed cut interest rates, nickel prices are expected to run on the strong side.