[2019.7.5 minutes of nickel internal morning meeting] Pure nickel buying Xingping nickel iron steel price rise

Macro: there was no important macro data released yesterday, and today we should focus on the US non-farm payrolls after the June quarter and the US unemployment rate in June.

Spot nickel market: July 4, SMM 1 # electrolytic nickel 97900100900 yuan / ton. Russian nickel than Shanghai nickel 1908 discount 400-300 yuan / ton. Jinchuan nickel than Shanghai nickel 1908 contract generally reported a rise of 2500 to 2700 yuan / ton, early trading hours, the price around 98200 yuan / ton volatility, due to the first half of the week trading improved, today's nickel price rose to curb downstream purchasing sentiment, early trading hours trading light. Due to the tight supply of nickel in Jinchuan, the quoted price of the holder is quite different, the rising water is 2500 yuan / ton, and some of the cargo holders are quoted as rising water 3000 yuan / ton, the price is not in the market. In the second trading period, prices fell, market activity improved slightly, Russian nickel continued to trade actively with the mainstream discount of 400 yuan / ton, Jinchuan Shengshui continued to raise, although Jinchuan company ex-factory price was 100000 yuan / ton, up 500yuan / ton from yesterday, but the supply of goods favored by the market is tight, the mainstream transaction is 97600100500 yuan / ton. Although nickel rebounded slightly in the afternoon, it was still below the EMA, and the transaction became weaker in the afternoon. The level of Russian nickel paste was stable, and Jinchuan nickel holders continued to report rising water of 2600 yuan to 2700 yuan per ton. The transaction is general all day, the mainstream transaction is 97600 to 100600 yuan / ton.

Stainless steel market: July 4, Qingshan 304 narrow strip hot rolling price 13700 yuan / ton, quantity to be approved. It is up 400 yuan per ton from the opening price on June 17. On July 4, the guiding price of Wuxi stainless steel plant generally increased by 50 to 100 yuan per ton. For details, see https://news.smm.cn/news/100944285.

Inventory: 157400 tons of nickel stocks on July 4, a decrease of 906 tons compared with July 3.

Nickel price judgment: pure nickel import window closed, NPI from the steel mill tender price recovery situation to see its supply and demand side performance is OK, coupled with the United States interest rate cut in July or bearish US dollar, the short-term nickel price is supported at this level, but the long-term fundamental weak expectation still exists; Lennie stands above the 60-day moving average, but is still subject to 5-10-day EMA resistance, today it is expected to run in the range of 12300 US $12600 / ton. It is predicted that the Shanghai nickel 08 contract will fluctuate in the 98000-99000 yuan / ton range and 98000-100000 yuan / ton in spot.