[SMM Black Futures Daily Review] 20190 624: environmental protection is becoming stricter again, and talent will lead the way up.

In terms of volume and price, RB1910 rose 45 yuan / ton to close at 3904 yuan / ton; HC1910 closed up 86 yuan / ton to close at 3846 yuan / ton; I1909 closed down 6.5 yuan / ton to close at 813.5 yuan / ton; J1909 closed down 8 yuan / ton to close at 2081.5 yuan / ton. In terms of position data, RB1910 sold 4.86 million transactions, down 160000 to 2.54 million; I1909, 2.95 million, down 126900 to 1.76 million; in terms of capital flows, RB1910 had a net outflow of 401 million yuan today; and I1909 recorded a net outflow of 924 million yuan. Viewpoint: the concussion is strong. On June 22, the Tangshan Municipal Government held a meeting on the theme of environmental protection. On the 23rd, Tangshan issued the "notice on stopping production restriction for Iron and Steel Enterprises in the whole City." the document shows that the scope of the production restriction has been further expanded to the whole city, and the intensity of the production restriction has also been further strengthened. In addition to some Class A enterprises, the proportion of production restriction for sintering machines and blast furnaces is not less than 50 percent. According to SMM estimates, if the production limit is strictly enforced, Crude steel output is expected to affect about 4.081 million tons, affected by this weekend, two days, billet rose 70 yuan / ton, today up another 50 yuan / ton, early trading, the snail jumped high, once broke through the previous high of 3966 of the year's high, and then fell back. Due to the tightening of production restrictions, the output of pig iron is also affected by 3.85 million tons, so the performance of iron ore and coke is relatively weak. From a fundamental point of view, the prospects for Sino-US trade have eased in the near future, and the Federal Reserve has released dovish signals, resulting in a marked improvement in market risk appetite. Although the demand side has been weakened by the high temperature of Rain Water weather, the environmental protection policies in various places have become stricter and steel mills have increased production cuts. the supply pressure has been alleviated and the steel price support is stronger. Under the environmental protection and production restrictions, the demand for raw materials has declined, coupled with the large increase in the early period, there is a certain fear of heights in the market, the willingness to do long is weak, and the short-term trend is expected to be weaker than that of mature materials. Strategy: RB1910 contract range (3800, 4000); I1909 contract range (750860), more single Fenggao reduction, fall back again, rolling operation. Disclaimer: this information comes from a statistical arbitrage model based on historical data, and all conclusions are based on reliable and publicly available information. The SMM quantification team is not responsible for any losses that may be caused by all information. We recommend that investors independently evaluate specific investments and strategies. Investors are also encouraged to seek advice from professional financial advisers. This information does not provide a tailored investment strategy.