[SMM Black Futures Daily Review] 20190606: there is a good news from the supply side, and the black is first suppressed and then raised.

In terms of volume and price, RB1910 closed down 10 yuan / ton from the previous trading day to close at 3737 yuan / ton, while HC1910 closed down 10 yuan / ton to 3597 yuan / ton compared with the previous trading day. I1909 closed down 7 yuan per ton to close at 712.5 yuan per ton, while J1909 closed up 32 yuan per ton at 2146.5 yuan per ton. In terms of position data, the number of RB1910 transactions decreased by 12300 to 2.59 million, while that of I1909 decreased by 66200 to 1.45 million. In terms of capital flows, the net outflow of funds from RB1910 today was 57.68 million yuan. I1909 net outflow of funds was $463 million. Viewpoint: concussion builds the bottom. Yesterday night, futures still continue the downward trend of intraday shock, but before noon suddenly appeared a strong pull up, and then has been continuing the upward trend of concussion, by the end of the day, recover most of the day's decline, bifocal performance is more strong, both turn red. Positive news came from the supply side today, with the latest data released by the China Iron and Steel Association showing that the average daily output of crude steel in key steel enterprises in mid-May was 2.038 million tons, down 0.38 percent from the previous month, a boost to market confidence. Today's intraday RB1910 lowest down to 3670, only one step away from the previous low, from the absolute price, the valuation is on the low side, long has a higher margin of safety, causing bottom funds to enter, the short-term bottom of the market may have been identified. Bicoke has once again become the strongest variety today, and there are signs of strictness in the implementation of environmental protection. Shaanxi Coking Plant has limited production, coking coal supply has been affected by environmental protection and security inspection, the operating rate has dropped somewhat, and some types of coal are in demand and the supply is tight. There is support for the price. On the iron ore side, Australian shipments increased in June, while environmental demand for ore will be constrained to a certain extent, and the fundamentals of short-term ore will become weaker. Today is the last trading day before the Dragon Boat Festival, there is no night trading, a large number of risk aversion funds choose to leave the market ahead of time, the black system shows a state of net outflow of funds, but no matter from the basic or technical point of view, the probability of the bottom of the black shock is greater at present. Continue to further downward space is limited, if the festival period is not significant bad, after the festival or ushered in a stable rebound. Strategy: RB1910 contract range (3650, 3850); I1909 contract range (680780), short-term temporary wait-and-see, the middle line can be arranged step by step on the low side. Disclaimer: this information comes from a statistical arbitrage model based on historical data, and all conclusions are based on reliable and publicly available information. The SMM quantification team is not responsible for any losses that may be caused by all information. We recommend that investors independently evaluate specific investments and strategies. Investors are also encouraged to seek advice from professional financial advisers. This information does not provide a tailored investment strategy.