[SMM afternoon Review] Thread strong bifocal drop paste water narrowed Shanghai copper slightly lower

Published: Mar 4, 2019 11:38

SMM, March 4: Shanghai Copper fell 0.16%. On the spot side, from the performance of the weekend, the downstream replenishment was positive, and there were traders receiving low discount, so the spot discount narrowed rapidly, and the current price continues to fall. Lower transaction heat is expected to increase; Shanghai Aluminum rose 0.48%; Shanghai zinc rose 0.59%, Shanghai zinc green is still standing above the integer gate, guided by a strong external market is more obvious, but the current domestic high inventory is still hanging in the long mind of a sword, coupled with a lot of news during the period, capital or operation is cautious; Shanghai lead rose 0.62%, Shanghai lead after the high level went positive, the high level small correction, but the upward trend has been formed, the current on-the-spot capital profit-taking period, the correction is expected to be limited; Shanghai nickel rose 1.24%; Shanghai tin fell 0.45%.

In the black system, iron ore, thread, hot coil, coke and coking coal rose 1.95%, 0.95%, 0.29%, 0.3% and 1.5%, respectively.

Spot today:

Copper: today, the spot price of electrolytic copper in Shanghai is 80 yuan / ton to 20 yuan / ton, the transaction price of flat water copper is 49920 yuan / ton ~ 50040 yuan / ton, and the transaction price of copper is 50000 yuan / ton ~ 50120 yuan / ton. Shanghai copper continues to wander around 50,000, and the holding companies have a strong willingness to hold up the price. At the beginning of the offer, that is, 80 yuan / ton to flat water, the market buys more on the cheap, traders lead the market to conclude transactions, and the activity of the early market is high. A round of receipt of goods led to a rapid increase in the price of good copper to 10 yuan / ton, but flat copper lacks the market to buy, can receive goods at a lower price, the transaction is mostly in the discount of 80 yuan / ton, and even the price can be reduced to 90 yuan / ton. In the second trading session, traders continued to take the initiative in speculative performance, mainly buying good copper, good copper continued to raise water by 20 yuan per ton, flat copper remained unchanged, and wet copper gradually narrowed with the market quotation discount. Transactions are mostly in the discount 180 ~ discount 170 yuan / ton, downstream continue to maintain rigid demand. Today, good copper, flat water copper transaction polarization, the market to good copper transactions, flat water copper quotation to maintain stability is difficult to rise. This week, the market gradually entered the delivery period, the monthly price difference of about 150 yuan / ton, driven by traders, the water will continue to rise.

Aluminum: aluminum in the current month to interval shock. The mainstream transaction price in Shanghai is between 13610 and 13630 yuan / ton, an increase of more than 70 yuan / ton over the previous day, and between 60 and 50 yuan / ton for the current month. In the morning, Chinalco received nearly 3000 tons of goods at a price of nearly 40 yuan per ton above the market transaction price, and the holder was very active in shipping, and then its receiving price was gradually reduced to around 13620 yuan per ton. Under the leadership of Chinalco, the market as a whole is active. Trading between traders and middlemen is active, downstream manufacturers on the first day of this week basic performance on demand procurement, there is not much bright spot. Today, the overall transaction in East China is better.

Lead: Shanghai market southern lead 17650 to 17675 yuan / ton, 1903 contract discount 25 yuan / ton to flat water quotation; other domestic lead 17625 to 17650 yuan / ton, SMM1# electrolytic lead average price to 25 yuan / ton. The futures market continues to be consolidated at a high level, the holder ships with the goods, and the quotation appears small discount, but the downstream fear of high caution, very few inquiries, coupled with the increase in the supply of recycled refined lead, continue to divert downstream demand, bulk market high price transaction is difficult.

Zinc: Shanghai 0 # mainstream zinc transaction 22060 22140 yuan / ton, Shuangyan and Chihong 22140 22200 yuan / ton, 0 # ordinary pair 1903 contract discount 60-40 yuan / ton; Shuangyan and Chihong reported rising water 10 to 30 yuan / ton. 1 # the mainstream transaction was between 21950 and 22040 yuan per ton. Shanghai zinc plate showed a trend of finishing operation, the early market closed at 22165 yuan / ton. Zinc futures maintain a high level of operation, smelter shipments are normal, the circulation of zinc ingots in the market is still abundant, the monthly difference in the morning market has narrowed to about 20 to 30 yuan / ton, and the quotation of the holder has been further reduced to about 40 yuan / ton of discount water and 30 yuan / ton of discount water compared with last Friday. That is, near the 10-level water discount the following month, the willingness to push the price is strong, and the two sides of the market are slightly deadlocked, and then the monthly difference is expanded to about 60 to 80 yuan / ton, and the market quotation follows the adjustment. Market transaction discount further expanded by 10 to 20 yuan / ton to discount 50 to 60 yuan / ton or so stable; The corresponding downstream consumption, compared with last week, showed a slight improvement, but due to the impact of high prices, the direct contribution to market transactions did not increase significantly, still maintained a rigid demand state, trade between traders more active.

Tin: this morning Shanghai tin plate is mainly in the vicinity of 150300 yuan / ton narrow consolidation, the mainstream spot market 148500 to 150000 yuan / ton, the morning spot market transaction atmosphere is general, low price goods supply is less, set price rise discount is more firm. As a result of the discount has been slightly reduced, trading is light; part of the downstream into the market replenishment, the overall trading is general. Package goods Yunxi discount 400 to 500 yuan / ton, ordinary cloud word sticker 1400 yuan / ton, small brand discount 1600 to 1800 yuan / ton.

Nickel: Russia and nickel than Wuxi 1903 liter water 100 yuan / ton, individual traders reported rising water 150 yuan / ton, 100 yuan / ton water a small amount of transactions. Jinchuan nickel is about 500 yuan / ton higher than Wuxi 1903 contract. Part of the transaction is 500 yuan / ton, but 600 yuan / ton is difficult. Traders generally reflect this morning's trading hours, light trading, downstream only on demand, the price of pure nickel raw materials is too high, downstream actively looking for other raw materials. The ex-factory price of Jinchuan Company today was 105300 yuan / ton, up 1500 yuan / ton from Friday. The mainstream transaction is 104800 to 105,300 yuan / ton.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

For any inquiries or to learn more information, please contact: lemonzhao@smm.cn
For more information on how to access our research reports, please contact:service.en@smm.cn
Related News
Copper Scrap Payability Coefficients Hold Exceptionally Firm as Supply-Demand Mismatch Defies Traditional Market Logic
8 hours ago
Copper Scrap Payability Coefficients Hold Exceptionally Firm as Supply-Demand Mismatch Defies Traditional Market Logic
Read More
Copper Scrap Payability Coefficients Hold Exceptionally Firm as Supply-Demand Mismatch Defies Traditional Market Logic
Copper Scrap Payability Coefficients Hold Exceptionally Firm as Supply-Demand Mismatch Defies Traditional Market Logic
In May, copper prices surged before retracing, yet copper scrap payability coefficients remained exceptionally firm. Transactions for Millberry stabilized at a high level of 98.5%, while No. 2 copper became the market highlight, with its coefficient climbing from around 95% to 96%–97% due to the premium upside of its gold and silver by-products. Driven by stricter domestic policies and tax compliance, China demand remained robust. Conversely, tight overseas scrap supply persisted, and this structural mismatch kept import payability coefficients elevated and sticky for the short term. Under the current landscape of tight global supply and resilient demand, the traditional market logic of "surging copper prices driving down payability coefficients" has effectively become obsolete.
8 hours ago
Copper Cathode Output Down 0.81% MoM in May, Up 2.73% YoY
9 hours ago
Copper Cathode Output Down 0.81% MoM in May, Up 2.73% YoY
Read More
Copper Cathode Output Down 0.81% MoM in May, Up 2.73% YoY
Copper Cathode Output Down 0.81% MoM in May, Up 2.73% YoY
[SMM Copper Cathode Production] Copper cathode production in May came in at 1.1694 million mt, down 0.81% MoM and up 2.73% YoY. Cumulative production from January to May was 5.8761 million mt, up 7.66% YoY cumulatively.
9 hours ago
Copper Cathode Output Dips in May, June Forecast Slightly Lower Amid Ongoing Smelter Maintenance
9 hours ago
Copper Cathode Output Dips in May, June Forecast Slightly Lower Amid Ongoing Smelter Maintenance
Read More
Copper Cathode Output Dips in May, June Forecast Slightly Lower Amid Ongoing Smelter Maintenance
Copper Cathode Output Dips in May, June Forecast Slightly Lower Amid Ongoing Smelter Maintenance
9 hours ago