NBS: China Aluminum Output Grows Notably in June

[Geopolitical Risk Premium Exits Market, Aluminum Prices Under Short-Term Pressure and Volatility] On the macro front, the US and Iran have completed signing an electronic MOU. Expectations of geopolitical easing continue to materialize, market panic over the Middle East conflict continues to fade, and the geopolitical risk premium for commodities has weakened significantly. US May CPI rose 4.2% YoY, hitting a three-year high, while core CPI also strengthened. The market continues to bet on the Fed restarting rate hikes within the year, and expectations of tightening liquidity continue to suppress metal valuations. On the fundamentals side, the Middle East conflict caused involuntary production cuts in overseas aluminum capacity. Expectations of a global supply deficit continue to widen, and coupled with expectations of rising energy costs, this provides strong bottom support for LME aluminum. China’s inventory destocking trend has been established, and the destocking logic continues to be realized. The rebound in the proportion of liquid aluminum, support from export demand, and supply normalization compressing aluminum ingot formation—these three fundamental factors jointly drive the continuation of destocking. SMM maintains its forecast that inventory will fall to around 1.28 million mt by late June, and may further approach 1.2 million mt by end-June/early July, bringing some support to aluminum prices. However, the pressure from high domestic inventory remains relatively pronounced. Coupled with the currently bearish macro sentiment dominating the market, short-term domestic aluminum prices are mainly in the doldrums, with volatile adjustments.

Según informes de medios extranjeros, a raíz de las solicitudes de varias empresas, entre ellas Hindalco Industries y SRF Altech, India ha decidido prorrogar hasta el 15 de diciembre de 2026 los derechos antidumping sobre el papel de aluminio con un espesor de hasta 80 micras importado de China, Malasia, Tailandia e Indonesia. Anteriormente, el 29 de septiembre de 2025, la Dirección General de Recursos Comerciales (DGTR) del Ministerio de Comercio e Industria de la India había iniciado una revisión por extinción de las importaciones de papel de aluminio procedentes de estos cuatro países.

[SMM Aluminum Flash] El inventario de lingotes de aluminio secundario en las principales áreas de consumo de China se situó en 24.600 toneladas, 570 toneladas menos que el día anterior, con una aceleración del ritmo de desabastecimiento.