SHANGHAI, Feb. 16 (SMM) –About 35% of Chinese tin smelters surveyed by SMM expect tin prices to fall this week.
They are bearish that spot tin prices in Shanghai will drop to RMB 102,000-104,000/mt. Many tin smelters held back goods before the week-long holiday, so they are now facing great pressure to sell to generate cash, these pessimists said. This will add to market oversupply pressure. LME tin will find support at the 10-day moving average and USD 15,000/mt. SHFE tin will test support at RMB 97,000/mt if it fails to break through resistance at RMB 100,000/mt.
Another 50% expect spot tin prices in Shanghai to hold stable between RMB 102,500-105,000/mt. Supply and demand in Shanghai spot market will not recover immediately after the holiday, which will keep prices stable, they noted. They expect LME tin to move at lows levels due to worries over rate hike by the US Fed and global economy. They believe that SHFE tin will try to break through RMB 100,000/mt.
Only 15% are bullish that spot tin prices in Shanghai will rise to RMB 103,000-105,000/mt. Market supply will remain tight, due to joint production cuts by smelters and strong wait-and-see attitude among smelters, they noted. Tin prices will rise slightly once cheap goods are depleted. Technically, SHFE tin will challenge resistance at RMB 103,000/mt