ADC12 spot price under pressure as aluminum and futures decline accelerates [ADC12 Price Daily Review]

Afarak Group said demand for chrome ore has recently regressed because of oversupply in China, and that a substantial rise in freight costs and falling market prices are significantly affecting profit margins, according to its Q3 2026 production report published on October 30. Group production for the first nine months of 2026 rose 17.9% year on year, driven by the South African mines, which Afarak said are now operating steadily after extensive and continuous preparation work. South African mining output was 89,733 mt in Q3, up 210.3% from 28,932 mt in Q3 2025, and 183,369 mt for the nine months, up 32.8% from 138,114 mt. In Specialty Alloys, Turkish mining output rose 12.5% to 20,152 mt, while processing fell 46.5% to 3,233 mt because of a strategic initiative to optimize inventory levels. Specialty Alloys production totaled 23,385 mt in Q3, down 2.4%, and 73,808 mt for the nine months, down 7.9%. On other products, Afarak said low-carbon ferrochrome consumption and pricing in Europe are slowly picking up from a very low level, and that the US market is doing much better on healthy aeronautical demand. It said high freight costs from India and China are currently discouraging large imports. The company said the stronger US dollar is helping its results, together with the effect of CBAM and the introduction of mandatory product liability and recall insurance for all ferrochrome products. SMM data show China’s chrome ore port inventory at a record 5.626 million mt as of November 6, up 7.46% from 5.236 million mt on October 30.

Outokumpu said the increase in subsidized charge chrome supply from South Africa is putting pressure on ferrochrome market prices, according to its January–September 2026 interim report published on November 6. The company said South African charge chrome production is increasing gradually following an agreement on electricity price aid, and that the duration of the support and the magnitude of its impact remain uncertain. Business area Ferrochrome delivered 110,000 mt in Q3, up 5% year on year from 105,000 mt and down 4% quarter on quarter from 114,000 mt, with the quarterly decline attributed mainly to seasonality. Nine-month deliveries were 334,000 mt, up 11% from 301,000 mt. Sales were EUR 138 million, against EUR 117 million a year earlier and EUR 143 million in Q2. Adjusted EBITDA was EUR 41 million, against EUR 21 million a year earlier and EUR 37 million in Q2. The company attributed the year-on-year gain mainly to a higher average selling price and the quarterly gain mainly to higher net absorption of fixed costs. For Q4, Outokumpu expects adjusted EBITDA at a level similar to the EUR 10 million recorded in Q4 2025, affected by lower delivery volumes across its businesses and higher costs. It forecasts stainless steel deliveries 5–15% below Q3.

Vedanta-FACOR's ferrochrome auction held on November 4, 2026, recorded bids above the opening prices for its prime and small lots, according to BigMint. The prime lot, comprising material with a minimum 57% Cr content and a 10–150 mm size range, opened at ₹117,000/mt ex-works and received an H1 bid of ₹117,500/mt, a premium of ₹500/mt. The small lot of the same grade and size range opened at ₹117,500/mt and received an H1 bid of ₹119,000/mt, up ₹1,500/mt from its opening price. The chips lots received bids of ₹112,900/mt. Despite the premiums achieved at the auction, broader market conditions remained weak. BigMint reported that Indian spot ferrochrome prices had softened to around ₹118,500/mt amid subdued buying interest, while lower ferrochrome tender prices from Chinese producers put pressure on export realizations. Weak stainless steel demand and cautious procurement continued to weigh on market sentiment, limiting the scope for a near-term price recovery.