Inventory at historical lows, spot premiums repeatedly hitting record highs [SMM South China copper cathode spot weekly review]

November 5, 2026 news:

Guangdong region: This week, premiums in the region continued to climb, hitting a record high. The main reason was that the amount of copper cathode available in the market was very limited, prompting suppliers to keep raising prices on shipments. As of Thursday, high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 1,950 yuan/mt, up 550 yuan/mt from last Thursday; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 1,700 yuan/mt, up 550 yuan/mt from last Thursday; and SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 1,640 yuan/mt, up 550 yuan/mt from last Thursday. On Thursday, the price spread for standard-quality copper premiums between Shanghai and Guangdong stood at Shanghai being 200 yuan/mt higher, a relatively small gap that did not trigger interregional transfers. According to SMM statistics, as of Thursday, total inventory in Guangdong warehouses was 5,600 mt, down 659 mt from last Thursday, with warrants totaling 549 mt, down 1,024 mt. Specifically: This week, warehouse arrivals were 11,500 mt/week, up 1,900 mt/week WoW, slightly below the annual average (14,000 mt/week), mainly due to smelter maintenance. Warehouse withdrawals were 12,000 mt/week, down 7,200 mt WoW, below the annual average (14,200 mt/week), as limited available supply in the market kept warehouse withdrawals at low levels.

Looking ahead to next week, smelter maintenance is not yet over and supply remains constrained. However, due to the large price spread between futures contracts, some downstream processors have halted production, so demand is expected to decline next week, and spot premiums are expected to retreat from highs.