Alternative markets fail to fully offset 15.8% drop in Turkey's Jan-Sep HRC exports

[Vietnam] ASEAN HRC prices remained stable at 532 USD/tonne CFR Vietnam. Indonesian mills maintained offers for SAE1006 and SS400 HRC at 532–535 USD/tonne CFR Vietnam for January–February shipments. Vietnamese buyers indicated bids of only 529–530 USD/tonne CFR Vietnam for SAE1006, reflecting limited urgency to replenish inventories. Meanwhile, a major Vietnamese steelmaker maintained SAE-grade HRC offers at 559–560 USD/tonne CIF Vietnam. Discounts for large-volume orders remained under negotiation, with no confirmed details available.

HRC futures surged today, with the most-traded HC2701 contract closing at 3,200 yuan/mt, up 1.49% intraday. Spot market transaction prices were raised by 10-30 yuan/mt from the previous session, and intraday trading recovered notably. According to SMM intraday balance data, HRC production this week was 3.1289 million mt, down 46,100 mt WoW. HRC social inventory across 86 warehouses nationwide (large sample) stood at 4.7362 million mt, down 93,400 mt WoW, or -1.93% WoW, and up 7.55% YoY on a calendar-year basis. By region, all regions were destocking except east China and northeast China, which saw slight inventory buildup. Traders accelerated their procurement pace, and mill inventory declined as well. Total inventory was 593.18, down 124,900 mt WoW, extending destocking, though the pace slowed somewhat. Demand side, with supportive manufacturing policies taking effect, downstream orders from the automobile and home appliance industries retained some resilience, but actual end-user procurement pace remained in the doldrums, with limited room for growth. Cost side, further downside for raw materials such as iron ore and coke narrowed, providing bottom support for HRC prices. In addition, steel mill rolling line maintenance is gradually being implemented, easing supply-side pressure. Meanwhile, after consecutive declines, futures have some rebound momentum. HRC prices are expected to consolidate in the short term, with limited upside.

Nippon Steel raised its full-year guidance: net profit to 440 billion JPY (about 2.8 billion USD) from 290 billion, business profit to 720 billion JPY (about 4.6 billion USD) and revenue to 11.7 trillion JPY (about 74 billion USD). U.S. Steel is the main driver, with its contribution now seen at no less than 230 billion JPY (about 1.5 billion USD) versus 180 billion previously, on higher U.S. prices and synergies. Tight supply, tariffs and AI data centre construction lifted U.S. hot-rolled coil prices about 50% y-o-y in late October, above budget assumptions. H1 net profit reached 262.9 billion JPY (about 1.7 billion USD), reversing a 113.3 billion JPY loss a year earlier, on revenue of 5.84 trillion JPY. Japanese operations remain weak, with profit previously guided down 60%, while September U.S. steel imports rose about 50% y-o-y to 2.36 million tonnes on AISI data.