[SMM Steel] India Steel Prices Largely Flat Ahead of Diwali

Ternium (NYSE: TX) reported Q3 2026 net sales of 4.64 billion USD, up about 17% y-o-y, with earnings of 1.42 USD per ADS. Adjusted EBITDA rose to 785 million USD at a 17% margin; operating income reached 578 million USD. Steel shipments grew about 8% y-o-y to 4.044 million tonnes on stronger Mexican demand. A 116 million USD deferred tax loss from peso depreciation capped net income at 368 million USD, of which 279 million USD was attributable to owners. Mining shipments fell 12% to 2.832 million tonnes after part of Mineração Usiminas was idled. Operating cash flow was 613 million USD and capex 398 million USD, mainly for the new Pesquería slab mill, turning free cash flow positive at 215 million USD and net cash to 22 million USD. An interim dividend of 0.90 USD per ADS was declared; Q4 EBITDA is guided broadly flat.

Strong US energy infrastructure demand is underpinning the galvanized steel market and lifting Taiwanese exporters' order books and pricing. Yieh Phui is accelerating international marketing and adding green-energy steel products to its portfolio, targeting Japan, Europe and North America. Other market signals are also firm: AISI data show US raw steel production rose both w-o-w and y-o-y in the week ending 31 October, while Nucor raised hot-rolled coil spot prices on tight supply and strong demand. In Asia, Hoa Phat exported 8,000 tonnes of galvanized steel to Japan for the first time, and Jindal (India) commissioned an upgraded continuous galvanizing line in West Bengal, pointing to continued downstream galvanizing capacity expansion.

Japan’s cast steel wheel centre market is a narrow rail rolling-stock castings niche, not interchangeable with monobloc forged or rolled wheels. IndexBox’s 2026-2035 outlook sees demand up about 1-3% annually, or 10-30% cumulatively by 2035, led by maintenance and replacement at 60-75% of addressable demand; new-build orders are intermittent. Indicative prices are 300-1,500 USD per standard centre and 1,500-4,000 USD per specialised design, excluding machining, heat treatment, inspection and qualification. Qualification cycles of 12-36 months and service lives of 10-30 years raise switching costs. Import share for qualified core programmes may be 5-20%, subject to project validation. Constraints are approved design and qualified casting capacity, not general steel supply.