In October 2026, SMM #1 silver production fell 5.03% MoM; cumulative production in 2026 was approximately 16,000 mt, up 3.72% YoY.
This month's decline in silver ingot production came mainly from two sources: first, non-ore silver, as recycled silver production was largely halted during the National Day holiday; second, by-product ore silver from copper concentrates, as some copper smelting regions underwent maintenance shutdowns, leaving some plants without silver output during the month and shipments lower. Some copper smelters are expected to continue maintenance shutdowns in November and December, and production may fluctuate slightly; meanwhile, silver ingot production at lead-zinc smelters has been gradually recovering since September. Overall, this year's increase in silver ingot production has mainly benefited from higher imports of silver-bearing concentrates.
In PV, SMM silver nitrate production fell 13.48% MoM in October, with cumulative 2026 production at approximately 6,000 mt, down 17.59% YoY. This month's decline was mainly due to pre-holiday stockpiling at end-September, which pulled forward about one week of demand. For the full year, silver use in the PV sector remains on a downtrend.
In October spot silver ingot trading, the market maintained transaction prices at a slight premium to SGE Ag (T+D), supported by several waves of phased consumption: first, heavy pre-holiday stockpiling at end-September; second, seasonal jewelry demand during the National Day holiday, led by Shenzhen, which extended through October; third, silver's oversold decline after mid-month CPI data release, which spurred downstream restocking; and fourth, escalating geopolitical conflicts at month-end that pushed silver prices to hit bottom again, triggering another round of consumption. By month-end, however, overall end-user consumption momentum had weakened somewhat, and silver ingot plants began to resume production and shipments. SHFE inventory showed a sustained decline followed by stabilization, with SMM social inventory destocking by about 68 mt from the previous month-end as of October 29.
The market expects that October's consumption recovery was driven more by seasonality and silver's oversold decline, which led to early stockpiling and to some extent pulled forward Q4 consumption. If the PV sector continues to weaken and seasonal consumption gradually fades, market trading will gradually return to a sluggish state.
