[SMM Hot Rolled Arrivals] Arrivals in Mainstream Markets Near Trough This Week

SMM Steel, November 3: According to SMM statistics, total resource shipments to mainstream markets this week are estimated at 123,500 mt, down 31.27% WoW. By market:  

Table 1: Arrivals Comparison Across Mainstream Markets  

Source: SMM Steel  

Shanghai Market: HRC shipments to the Shanghai market changed narrowly this week. Specifically, shipments of resources from both north and south China were basically flat WoW; resources from south China continued to focus on special steel production, with arrivals remaining low. Looking ahead, the price difference between north and south China lacks attractiveness, making it difficult for northern resources to see significant growth in the short term, while southern resources are expected to see some supply increase. Therefore, SMM expects shipments to the Shanghai market to rebound in the short term.  

Chart-1: Arrivals in Shanghai Market  

Source: SMM Steel  

Lecong Market: Arrivals to Lecong continued to weaken this week. Specifically, arrivals of northern resources edged up, but arrivals of the two major mainstream resources continued to decline: DDH was dragged down by shipping disruptions, while WG remained focused on producing special steel. Under the combined effect of multiple factors, overall arrivals to Lecong continued to pull back WoW. Looking ahead, constrained by regional price spreads, profits for shipping northern resources southward are limited, and arrivals of northern resources may remain low; local mainstream resources have room for growth. Overall, arrivals to the Lecong market are expected to rebound in the short term.  

Chart-2: Arrivals in Lecong Market  

Source: SMM Steel  

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