[SMM Steel]

HRC futures remained weak and fluctuated today, with the most-traded HC2701 contract closing at 3,147 yuan/mt, down 0.54% intraday. Spot market transaction prices fell 10 yuan/mt from the previous session, with intraday deals generally on the weak side. News flow was mixed. Intraday reports said Mongolian coal customs clearance resumed, leading coking coal lower. Meanwhile, talk that coke producers would stabilize prices and ensure supply, and that the three major mills would make additional production cuts of 5%-8%, both underpinned finished steel prices and capped the upside. In terms of supply, HRC impact from maintenance this week was 144,400 mt, up 17,100 mt WoW. Next week, HRC impact from maintenance is expected at 218,300 mt, up 74,000 mt WoW, with production continuing to pull back. On the demand side, northern regions are gradually entering the construction off-season, outdoor project procurement volume is seeing a seasonal pullback, and the slower pace of manufacturing order recovery is keeping sheets and coils under pressure. With cost decline offsetting supply contraction expectations, HRC prices are expected to remain in the doldrums in the near term, with focus on whether market news actually materializes.

[Vietnam] HRC import prices rose by 2 USD/tonne to 531 USD/tonne CFR Vietnam. Two Indonesian mills reportedly sold substantial volumes of SAE1006 HRC at 532 USD/tonne CFR Vietnam last week, for December–January delivery. A major Vietnamese steelmaker announced December-delivery offers for SAE1006 and SS400 HRC at approximately 559–560 USD/tonne CIF Vietnam. While prices remained unchanged in Vietnamese dong, their USD equivalents increased due to exchange-rate movements. With domestic offers significantly higher than Indonesian imports, Vietnamese buyers remained cautious about placing orders.

[Sheets & Plates] Today, export prices for HRC and some other sheets & plates fell $2-3/mt WoW, with HRC transaction prices concentrated in the $478-485/mt range. Steel mills in north China, with order books extending far ahead and severe port congestion, maintained relatively high offers; some second-tier export producers lowered prices, with offers at $480/mt. Overseas conditions remained subdued, with a strong wait-and-see sentiment.