Tin Market Midday Review for November 3, 2026
1. Price Review
SMM #1 tin spot prices today ranged between 364,800–367,100 yuan/mt, averaging 365,950 yuan/mt, down 5,450 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.
The most-traded SHFE tin 2612 contract opened at 363,760 yuan/mt in the night session. After a brief dip in early trading, it drifted higher, reaching an intraday high of 370,000 yuan/mt, before retreating after the rapid rise. The decline extended into the daytime session, with losses widening in the morning. The contract hit an intraday low of 356,620 yuan/mt and closed the morning at 358,050 yuan/mt, down 6,270 yuan/mt, or 1.72%, from the previous settlement price of 364,320 yuan/mt. Trading volume today reached 197,592 lots, with open interest at 45,549 lots, down 471 lots from the previous day.
On the LME, the 3M LME tin contract last traded at $48,225/mt, down $1,575/mt, or 3.16%, from the previous settlement. Prices consolidated lower from around the $49,100/mt level, hitting an intraday low of $48,020/mt, with 144 lots traded. Prices pulled back below the $48,500/mt mark. The SHFE/LME price ratio stood at approximately 7.42.
2. Spot Market
Spot market trading was generally subdued today, with downstream demand still showing no improvement and purchases driven mainly by rigid demand. After futures broke below the 360,000 yuan/mt level late in the session, some low-price inquiries emerged in the market. However, at that price level, some suppliers suspended order-based pricing, and available supply was limited, so the stimulus from lower prices on transaction volumes was modest. On the quotation side, available spot cargoes were relatively scarce, and spot quotes maintained high premiums over futures. Meanwhile, prices had pulled back significantly from highs, and smelters continued to hold prices firm, showing little willingness to sell at low prices.
Ex-China, LME tin inventory has recently held near 4,000 mt, at a relatively low level for the year. Earlier, the decline in LME prices was relatively moderate, mainly due to the downside resilience provided by low inventory, with losses smaller than those in China. Today, the decline in LME prices widened notably, showing catch-down characteristics. The support from low ex-China inventory for futures prices has weakened somewhat, but the underlying logic of low inventory as a floor has not yet changed.
3. Macro Front
① US-Iran diplomatic breakthrough, oil prices plunged more than 8%. Iran indicated that if the US accepts conditions such as lifting port blockades and easing oil sanctions, the Strait of Hormuz could be reopened within two days. Overnight, Brent crude fell 8.23% to $104.1 per barrel, and WTI fell 7.73% to $96.08 per barrel. The earlier "inflation trade" narrative cooled significantly. Gold rebounded 1.8% from one-year lows to $3,946.47 per ounce.
② US midterm elections are being voted on today. Early voting exceeded 50 million ballots, a record high. The election results will influence the trajectory of fiscal policy and the game with US Fed policy, with market wait-and-see sentiment relatively strong. In US equities, Apple's Q4 revenue of $114.48 billion beat expectations, and AMD reported earnings after the close.
③ A-shares rebounded from oversold levels on Monday, with the CSRC stabilizing the market and expectations. The Shanghai Composite rose 1.08% to 3,638 points, and the STAR 50 surged 3.11%. The third operation of the swap facility was launched, with 31 institutions applying for over 100 billion yuan, and domestic risk appetite recovered somewhat.
4. Comprehensive Outlook
Overall, tin prices are currently in a consolidation phase, with macro guidance still unclear and market sentiment expected to remain volatile. In the short term, SHFE tin is expected to consolidate within the range of 360,000 to 380,000 yuan/mt, while LME tin prices are expected to fluctuate between $47,500 and $51,000/mt.
![SHFE tin closed the night session at 368,680 yuan, up 1.20%, returning to 368,000. LME tin 3M closed at $49,659, up $786. Low inventory and weak demand remain in a stalemate [SMM Tin Morning Meeting Summary]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/pwiFP20251217171752.jpg)
![[SMM Analysis] Indonesia's Tin Ingot Exports Drop 17.48% in September, Driven by Lower China Demand](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/BaCbN20251217171752.jpg)
