The most-traded SHFE tin contract rolled over to SN2612, closing the night session at 385,800 yuan, up 0.96%. LME 3M tin closed at $51,017, up $500. Low inventory and a backwardation structure jointly supported the rebound [SMM Tin Morning Meeting Minutes]

SMM Tin Morning Brief | Most-traded SHFE tin contract rolls to SN2612, night session closes at 385,800 yuan, up 0.96%; LME 3M tin settles at $51,017, up $500; low inventory and Back structure jointly support rebound — Tuesday, October 27, 2026

Futures

The most-traded SHFE tin contract rolled to SN2612 starting from the night session on October 26: open interest of 37,399 lots (up 1,261 lots) has exceeded SN2611's 14,566 lots (down 1,154 lots), and trading volume of 55,490 lots is also the highest among all contracts. Both open interest and trading volume point to SN2612 for the first time.

During the night session on October 26 (21:00 to 01:00 the next day), SN2612 opened at 383,910 yuan/mt, 1,790 yuan higher than the previous settlement of 382,120 yuan, then pulled back to a low of 380,020 yuan, rallied unilaterally to an intraday high of 387,230 yuan, and pulled back slightly in late trading to close at 385,800 yuan/mt, up 3,680 yuan, or 0.96%, forming a V-shaped reversal. SN2611 closed at 387,710 yuan/mt, up 3,400 yuan, or 0.88%.

LME 3M tin settled at $51,017/mt on October 26, up $500, or 0.99%, from the October 23 close of $50,517.

Inventory across three dimensions

LME tin inventory stood at 4,045 mt (October 23, down 50 mt); SHFE tin futures warrants stood at 1,982 mt (October 26, down 154 mt), breaking below the 2,000 mt mark, with deliverable supply falling to an absolute low for the year; SMM China tin ingot social inventory stood at 6,689 mt (week ending October 23, destocking of 1,081 mt in a single week). All three gauges moved lower in tandem.

Macro

CME FedWatch data on October 26 showed a 90% probability of keeping rates unchanged at this week's FOMC meeting and a 10% probability of a 25bp hike, with the current federal funds target range at 3.75% to 4.00%. The 10-year US Treasury yield closed at 4.986% in late New York trading on October 26, edging down less than 1bp from the previous trading day. On October 26, NYMEX December WTI settled at $101.76/bbl, down 1.5%; ICE December Brent settled at $115.81/bbl, down 0.8%, retreating from recent highs as officials from multiple countries traveled to Tehran to push for renewed talks, easing concerns over Middle East escalation.

Fundamentals

Supply side: Weekly operating rates at refined tin smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi fell to 27.11% (October 23), with raw material tightness constraining production release. On the import side, September tin concentrate imports hit a yearly high of 21,600 mt in physical content, with cumulative first-three-quarter imports up 28.6% YoY; September refined tin imports were 3,890 mt and net imports were 2,571 mt, both the highest of the year. On the ex-China ore front, Alphamin produced 5,030 mt of tin in Q3, with cumulative first-three-quarter output of 15,069 mt and an all-in sustaining cost of $20,642/mt, while flagging logistics risks from the rainy season in Q4.

Supply summary: Supply is marginally tight but import supplements are strengthening. The smelting operating rate of 27.11% is at a low level. September's refined tin net imports of 2,571 mt hit a new high for the year, partially offsetting domestic production cuts. This mainly provides bottom support for tin prices, with no strong upward momentum yet.

Demand side: Spot premiums remain high at 2,000 yuan/mt, and LME spot prices against the 3M contract carry a premium of $60.77/mt. The strengthening backwardation reflects tight deliverable supply in nearby months. However, after the rise in futures, downstream purchasing has turned cautious, with transactions dominated by small rigid-demand orders and no signs of peak-season volume expansion.

Demand summary: Demand is mediocre. The spot premium of 2,000 yuan/mt and the LME spot premium of $60.77/mt reflect structural tightness in supply rather than end-user volume growth. Actual demand follow-through is insufficient, and the demand side lacks incremental support for now.

Overall

SHFE tin rebounded for two consecutive trading days and held above 380,000 yuan/mt. Domestic warrants fell below 2,000 mt, while LME inventory continued to decline to 4,045 mt, creating a resonance of low inventory at home and abroad. The backwardation structure strengthened simultaneously, providing relatively solid support for nearby months. This week, the US Fed is highly likely to keep interest rates unchanged at its policy meeting, with limited marginal macro disturbance. Upside is constrained by downstream resistance to high prices. Attention should be paid to the tone of the policy meeting and the pace of production resumptions at mines in Myanmar and Indonesia.