This week, SHFE copper spot premiums held steady before rising. At the start of the week, some low-priced cargoes entered the market, slightly weighing on premiums. Mid-week, some processing enterprises released orders and procurement demand, but performance diverged among enterprises. High premiums and the backwardation between the current and next-month contracts limited willingness to chase prices, and premiums overall continued to consolidate at highs. On Friday, a decline in SHFE copper prices activated some downstream dip-buying, and combined with reduced low-priced cargoes and suppliers holding prices firm, spot premiums rose. On the inventory side, social inventory in Shanghai stood at 51,100 mt as of October 22, down 8,200 mt from Monday this week; Jiangsu recorded 21,200 mt, down 2,000 mt from Monday, with combined destocking of 10,200 mt across the two regions.
Looking ahead to next week, SHFE copper spot premiums are expected to hold up well. Supply side, recent warrant outflows from delivery are limited, domestic cargo replenishment is modest, and available spot copper in Shanghai remains tight; affected by typhoon weather expectations, the arrival and unloading pace of some imported copper may be delayed, and short-term cargo replenishment still needs monitoring. Demand side, after copper prices pulled back, downstream rigid demand and dip-buying restocking have been released to some extent. If prices remain within an acceptable range for downstream buyers, procurement demand is expected to continue supporting premiums. After the import window opened in stages, subsequent arrivals may also ease tight supply. Overall, SHFE spot copper against the 2611 contract is expected to maintain high premiums next week, with potential for further gains in the short term. Attention should be paid to actual imported copper arrivals, warrant outflows, and the sustainability of downstream dip-buying.
