Aluminum Processing Rate Steady at 61.7% as Peak Season Ends [SMM Weekly Survey]

October 22, 2026:

This week, the operating rate of leading downstream aluminum processors in China held steady MoM at 61.7%. Overall industry production remained stable, but internal divergence intensified, with initial signs of a shift from peak season to off-season emerging. The operating rate of primary aluminum alloy producers edged up 0.4 percentage points to 60.6%, driven by a MoM increase in wheel hub exports in September and growth in automobile production. Downstream demand showed a mild recovery, and the lower aluminum price center helped slightly repair market sentiment, though actual transactions remained sluggish, with enterprises maintaining production schedules aligned with long-term contracts. The operating rate of aluminum plate/sheet and strip producers held steady at 69.2%, with orders not yet experiencing major fluctuations. After the aluminum price rebound, downstream wait-and-see sentiment eased somewhat and finished-product destocking pressure moderated. However, approaching the peak-to-off-season transition period, some enterprises have begun slowing their November production pace. The operating rate of aluminum wire and cable producers pulled back 0.4 percentage points to 64.4%, mainly due to some export-oriented enterprises reducing loads. State Grid's October tender volume narrowed significantly from September, providing limited boost from new orders. Q4 will focus primarily on digesting existing orders, with downward pressure likely to become more evident from November. The operating rate of aluminum extrusion producers held flat at 53.00%. Building extrusion pulled back slightly due to repeated aluminum price fluctuations and intensifying bearish sentiment downstream, which led to insufficient new follow-up orders. In industrial extrusion, energy storage-related profiles continued to see improving inquiries and orders on hand, while some automotive extrusion enterprises saw increased orders, effectively offsetting the decline. The operating rate of aluminum foil producers held steady at 71.1%, with battery foil and brazing foil production lines maintaining good order continuity, supported by continued export recovery in September. The operating rate of secondary aluminum producers held flat at 52.1%. The rebound in aluminum price center drove aluminum scrap prices up in tandem, raising costs. This was compounded by tight supply of compliant aluminum scrap and stricter tax invoice supervision. Meanwhile, as the October peak season drew to a close, end-use demand fell short of expectations, leaving enterprise production schedules constrained by both insufficient orders and limited raw material availability. Overall, the operating rate of the aluminum processing industry held steady this week. Going forward, close attention should be paid to aluminum price trends, the pace of State Grid order releases, and the extent of seasonal pullback in end-use demand.

Primary aluminum alloy: This week, the operating rate of China's leading primary aluminum alloy enterprises was recorded at 60.6%, up 0.4 percentage points WoW, with the overall operating level showing a slight improvement. From the enterprise side, production at industry leaders remained largely unchanged overall, with production still executed according to normal long-term contract pace, production schedules remaining stable, and no notable adjustments observed. From the downstream demand side, wheel hub exports in September improved MoM, and automobile production also increased, with downstream demand showing a mild recovery that to some extent drove the slight improvement in industry operating rates. However, the current demand recovery remains relatively mild overall, providing limited boost to operating rates, and enterprise production has yet to show significant volume expansion. From the market sentiment perspective, the aluminum price center has shifted lower recently. Although actual transactions are still understood to be limited, overall market sentiment has improved slightly compared with the earlier period. Downstream enterprises remain in a strong wait-and-see sentiment toward current prices, with procurement and restocking still cautious, and actual transaction volume expansion not yet evident. Overall, the supply side of the primary aluminum alloy industry remains stable, while downstream demand has improved slightly, driven by wheel hub exports and automobile production growth, leading to a modest increase in operating rates. Although the lower aluminum price center has led to a slight recovery in market sentiment, actual transactions remain sluggish, with a strong wait-and-see atmosphere on prices. The operating rate is expected to remain at current levels next week, while the extent of subsequent demand improvement and transaction follow-through remains to be observed.

Aluminum plate/sheet and strip: This week, the operating rate of leading aluminum plate/sheet and strip enterprises was 69.2%, stable MoM. Industry production continued its steady trend for the time being, with no major fluctuations on the order side, stable performance across all segments, and no clear signs of weakening market demand. On the price side, aluminum prices rebounded this week, and the previous wait-and-see sentiment among downstream players recovered accordingly, with destocking pressure on finished products easing compared with the earlier period. However, approaching the off-season transition period, expectations of a seasonal decline in demand have gradually emerged, and some enterprises have begun to slow their November production pace, with subsequent production schedule arrangements turning more cautious. On the export side, according to customs data, aluminum plate/sheet and strip exports in September were 310,300 mt, down 0.5% MoM but up 19.5% YoY. With a solid base of 2.7373 million mt in January–September, Q4 monthly average exports are expected to land at 280,000–310,000 mt, bringing the full-year export total to 3.58–3.67 million mt. Overall, although current operating rates remain steady, under the combined effects of emerging expectations of weakening demand, more cautious enterprise production schedules, and diminishing marginal boost from exports, the operating rate of leading enterprises is expected to decline gradually in the short term and enter the off-season range.

Aluminum wire and cable: This week, the operating rate of China's aluminum wire and cable industry pulled back slightly to 64.4%, down 0.4 percentage points WoW. On the production side, production lines that had previously undergone maintenance returned to normal load, with most sampled enterprises maintaining production schedules at pre-holiday levels. Some export-oriented enterprises trimmed their load slightly, and no concentrated maintenance or large-scale production cuts were seen during the week. On the order side, State Grid's tender volume for aluminum-related materials from October to date was approximately 4,800 mt, notably narrower than the 122,000 mt in September, providing limited boost to new orders. The roughly five-month delivery lead time for the September batch has already pushed the volume release period to Q1 next year, with Q4 still focused on digesting existing orders and advancing construction. On the export side, overseas inquiries for aluminum stranded wire remained sporadic, and with the domestic-overseas price ratio weakening, new order intake stayed subdued, further pressuring export sentiment. Overall, domestic orders still provided support but lacked sufficient growth. As temperatures decline and year-end production schedules converge, downward pressure may become more evident from November onward.

Aluminum extrusion: This week, the operating rate of aluminum extrusion stood at 53.00%, flat WoW. In the architectural extrusion segment, backlog orders from the National Day holiday were gradually delivered and completed this week, but recent aluminum price fluctuations and intensifying bearish sentiment downstream made clients more hesitant to place orders, dragging on order release. According to feedback from a Shandong-based enterprise, new orders brought by last week's aluminum price pullback still provided some support to this week's operations. However, affected by repeated price fluctuations this week, downstream clients held door and window orders but did not purchase extrusion materials in advance for stockpiling. Due to insufficient new follow-on orders, the operating rate of architectural extrusion edged down. The industrial extrusion segment consolidated on a strong note. The energy storage segment continued to improve, with inquiries and orders on hand for extrusion profiles used in utility-scale energy storage systems extending their upward trend. In automotive extrusion, most enterprises saw stable orders, while some individual enterprises recorded increased follow-on orders as sales of their corresponding car models rose, supplementing the segment's operating rate. Overall, the slight pullback in architectural extrusion was offset by strength in industrial extrusion, keeping the overall operating rate stable. In the near term, aluminum prices are expected to consolidate on a subdued note, with downstream bearish sentiment unchanged and procurement mainly need-based, leaving operating rates exposed to downward pressure ahead.

Aluminum foil: This week, the operating rate of leading aluminum foil enterprises was 71.1%, flat MoM, with both production and sales remaining unchanged. At the enterprise operation level, production lines for battery foil and brazing foil largely maintained stable output, with good order continuity and relatively limited impact from seasonal end-use demand fluctuations, providing fundamental support for the stable operating rate. On the export front, according to customs data, aluminum foil exports in September were 128,200 mt, up 6.8% MoM and up 13.2% YoY. Driven by the continued rebound in exports, total aluminum foil exports for the full year are expected to land at 1.41–1.45 million mt, with an expected full-year YoY increase of about 6%. Overall, with the combined support of stable production line operations and continued export growth, the short-term stability of the aluminum foil operating rate is expected to persist.

Secondary aluminum: This week, the operating rate of leading secondary aluminum enterprises was flat MoM at 52.1%, with the overall supply-demand pattern in the market remaining stable during the week and no significant adjustments in enterprise production. On the raw material side, the rebound in aluminum price center drove aluminum scrap prices up in tandem, raising enterprise procurement costs for raw materials. Meanwhile, factors such as tight supply of compliant aluminum scrap and stricter tax invoice supervision continued to constrain raw material procurement and production. On the demand side, as the October peak season drew to a close, end-use demand underperformed expectations, downstream order improvement was limited, and procurement remained primarily need-based restocking. After ADC12 prices were raised by 100 yuan/mt at the start of the week, downstream acceptance of high-priced supply was relatively limited, restocking enthusiasm showed no notable improvement, and enterprise production schedules remained constrained by both insufficient end-use orders and restricted raw material supply. Overall, the operating rate of the secondary aluminum industry is expected to remain stable in the short term, with limited room for further rebound. Going forward, close attention should be paid to changes in compliant aluminum scrap supply, raw material cost fluctuations, and the release of end-use orders.