Artificial Graphite More Likely to Rise Than Fall, Natural Graphite Consolidates at Lows [SMM Lithium Battery Anode Raw Material Market Weekly Review]

GM outlined its fourth-generation EV platform at the GM Forward event in New York on October 21 local time. The platform will use lithium manganese-rich (LMR) prismatic cells to be manufactured by Ultium Cells, its joint venture with LG Energy Solution, in Spring Hill, Tennessee. GM’s design target is 33% greater energy density than LFP batteries at a comparable cost. Combining the new batteries, propulsion systems and aerodynamics, the company also targets approximately 20% more driving range per kilowatt-hour than its current vehicles. The new drive units are designed with 40% fewer internal components, while the electrical architecture reduces wiring length by 30%.

This week, second-life application market prices began to pull back, with overall trading sentiment remaining subdued. The continued weakening of raw materials on the cost side is the core driver behind this round of price softening. Raw materials on the cost side extended their downward pattern, with divergence in the pace of movement across categories. Lithium carbonate maintained a downward trend overall this week; cobalt sulphate fell notably at the start of the week before gradually stabilising; nickel sulphate continued its earlier grind lower, further weakening cost support for second-life products overall. The supply side showed no significant changes, with stable circulation pace across categories and a steady market supply state, with no extreme situations such as concentrated volume releases or tightening supply. The demand side showed no clear improvement, and combined with falling cost-side prices dragging market expectations weaker, previously stable quotes began to loosen and move lower. In the short term, if cost-side prices continue to pull back, the likelihood of further downside in second-life application market prices is relatively high.

Raw material side: At the start of this week, lithium carbonate prices held around 100,000 yuan/mt; on Wednesday, futures prices fell sharply, and as of October 22, quotes were down roughly 3,000 yuan from the start of the week. Nickel sulphate prices weakened slightly during the week before stabilising, with the decline slowing; cobalt sulphate, pressured by sluggish demand, fell quickly at the start of the week and then gradually stabilised. By material type, LFP hydrometallurgy recycling side: Taking LFP electrode black mass as an example, battery black mass prices moved lower overall, while electrode black mass prices fluctuated more noticeably due to expectations of falling lithium carbonate and the impact of the LFP repair market. The high-premium sentiment for LFP electrode repair material gradually returned to rationality, and downstream acceptance of current prices per % lithium declined further. However, because front-end powder producers were clearly holding back from selling due to cost support, market tug-of-war sentiment remained strong. Meanwhile, as LFP electrode repair prices gradually converged toward market prices, the price spread between repair material and battery black mass narrowed further, and the spread between LFP electrode black mass and battery black mass has returned to a historically reasonable range. Ternary and LCO recycling side: Ternary electrode black mass payables continued to grind lower as nickel, cobalt, and lithium chemical prices weakened in turn. Affected by the recent decline in cobalt prices and persistently low downstream demand, cobalt payables in some downstream quotes began to show a trend of weakening independently. Cobalt and lithium payables for LCO black mass were similarly dragged down by weaker cobalt and lithium material prices and sluggish cobalt demand, and downstream purchase quotes fell further and more rapidly. However, supported by earlier procurement costs, some holders were unwilling to concede at low prices, resulting in a wide price spread between upstream and downstream quote payables. Market transactions were sluggish, with LCO black mass demand significantly lower than that for LFP and ternary materials.