Lead ingot inventories continue to destock in China and overseas; lead prices will return to fundamental-driven trends [SMM Lead Morning Meeting Summary]

Futures:

Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,897/mt. During Asian trading hours, LME lead continued to consolidate, hovering around $1,895/mt for most of the session. Entering European trading hours, LME lead gradually drifted higher and successfully broke above the $1,900/mt mark, reaching an intraday high of $1,911/mt, its highest level in nearly three weeks. Toward the close, LME lead gave back some gains and finally settled at $1,903.5/mt, up 0.29%.

On the macro front:

Overseas military deterrence escalated! Dozens of Israeli warplanes reportedly approached the Iranian border, while the US expanded sanctions and was said to be preparing to evacuate personnel from some Middle East embassies. Before the election, Trump made another move to pressure oil prices: the US plans to lend out one-third of its heating oil reserves. Macron's Middle East trip locked in diesel supply, with France receiving nearly 300,000 mt of additional supply per month, and Saudi Arabia pledging to supply for as long as needed.

:

In the lead spot market yesterday, SHFE lead continued to consolidate, while spot market circulating cargoes tightened further. Suppliers held prices firm, especially for primary lead cargoes self-picked up from production sites at smelters, with some quotations at higher premiums. Mainstream production area quotations were at premiums of 50-100 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price ex-works. For secondary lead, regional supply was tight, and smelters held prices firm, selling at premiums. Mainstream production area secondary refined lead quotations were at premiums of 0-75 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price ex-works. Downstream enterprises purchased as needed, with a few starting to book November cargoes, either purchasing secondary lead or remaining cautious on the sidelines. Spot order market transactions improved regionally.

Inventory: As of October 21, LME lead inventory stood at 329,300 mt, down 4,900 mt from the previous trading day. Total SHFE lead ingot warrant inventory was 21,126 mt, down 950 mt from the previous trading day.