The most-traded SHFE tin contract closed at 386,270 yuan in the night session, up 0.11%, while LME tin 3M closed at $51,248, down 0.17%, consolidating and recovering under the hard constraint of low inventory [SMM Tin Morning Meeting Minutes]

SMM Tin Morning Brief | Most-traded SHFE tin contract closed at 386,270 yuan in night session, up 0.11%; LME 3M tin closed at $51,248, down 0.17%; consolidation recovery under low inventory constraints — October 22, 2026 (Thursday)

[Futures] The most-traded SHFE tin SN2611 contract opened higher at 387,000 yuan/mt, shot up to 388,600 after the open, pulled back to a low of 384,500 in late trading, and finally closed at 386,270 yuan/mt, up 440 yuan/mt (+0.11%) from the previous settlement of 385,830. Night session volume was 58,972 lots, with turnover of 22.77 billion yuan; open interest was 24,660 lots, down 1,597 lots. The price rise accompanied by falling open interest corresponds to bear position reduction; the closing price was below the opening price, with the trend showing a retreat after rapid rise followed by a slight recovery in late trading. LME 3M tin official price on October 21 closed at $51,248/mt, down $86 (-0.17%), with the previous settlement at $51,334/mt. SHFE and LME trends diverged.

[Macro] After US September CPI exceeded expectations, market bets on an October rate hike remain the main macro variable pressuring tin prices, with earlier bearish sentiment partially digested. On October 21, the US Treasury announced sanctions on Iran's shadow fleet network, escalating geopolitical tensions; on the same day, the US 20-year Treasury auction awarded at a bid-to-cover ratio of 60.05%, far above the previous 30.14%, indicating weak long-end demand. A weaker US dollar combined with a rebound in overseas tech stocks led to marginal repair in AI trading sentiment, providing external support for tin prices.

[Spot Description] SMM #1 tin averaged 388,600 yuan/mt on October 21, with a price range of 386,200–391,000 yuan/mt, up 6,550 yuan/mt on the day. Higher futures drove spot prices up, with suppliers showing strong willingness to hold prices firm, while downstream remained mainly on just-in-time procurement with weak willingness to chase higher prices; the premium structure continued.

[Fundamentals] Supply side: Yunnan Tin remains in maintenance, smelter operating rates remain low, and the refined tin operating rate in Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces was 29.36%. General Administration of Customs data showed that September tin ore and concentrates imports were 21,602.54 mt, equivalent to 6,156.76 mt of metal content, up 148.23% YoY, of which Myanmar accounted for 5,506.15 mt, or about 14.9%; September refined tin imports were 3,890.24 mt, up 41.63% MoM and up 206.45% YoY, with exports of 1,318.76 mt and net imports of about 2,571.48 mt. Inventory: LME tin inventory was 4,255 mt, up 220 mt (registered warrants 3,815 mt, cancelled warrants 440 mt, cancellation ratio 10.34%); SHFE tin futures warrants were 2,426 mt, down 158 mt (Shanghai 318 mt, Guangdong 2,052 mt, Jiangsu 56 mt); SMM China tin ingot social inventory was 7,770 mt (week of October 16), with single-week destocking of 980 mt. Demand: In September, solder enterprises' operating rate was 79.10%, up 6.3 percentage points MoM; however, traditional end-use consumption remained weak, emerging sector consumption accounted for a relatively small share, and the "October peak season" has yet to be verified. Supply summary: Supply is neutral-to-tight, with the operating rate at a low 29.36% and SHFE warrants down to 2,426 mt, providing bottom support for tin prices. Demand summary: Demand is mediocre, with solder operating rate rebounding to 79.10% MoM but insufficient follow-through in end-user actual demand, providing no incremental boost to tin prices.

[Comprehensive] The hard constraint of low inventory persists, while the LME inventory rebound and mediocre demand cap the upside. Macro and AI sentiment dominate short-term pace, and tin prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating consolidation and recovery trend.